Week 6 · Board · Take Mahomes, Country Road

Hold — no change needed

DEGRADED 2 note(s) below Moves valid until Mon 19 Oct 20:02 UTC Designations 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC

Action Desk — week 6

HOLD

Hold — no supported change

Why: Every starter has kicked off. No lineup change this week is possible, and none is proposed; no available player can enter this week's lineup.
What would change it: A fresh league snapshot and player map within their game-day limits, a projection edge outside noise, or an available player who enters this week's lineup.

Open the Free Agent Radar

This week

Lineup lock: 10 of 10 starters locked; nothing on this week's lineup can still change.

What changed: 5 roster/lineup change(s) since 2026-10-19T06:45:33+00:00 · Refreshed and revised since 2026-10-19T06:45:33+00:00: 1 pool change(s), 9 revision(s) to a projection or verdict, 1 evidence change(s). Free Agents ↓

Matchup: 120.9 vs 111.2 projected (+9.7) — context, not advice. Matchup ↓

Free agents: 618 in the pool, 43 compared, 0 improve this week's lineup. Radar ↓

advice is for WEEK 6 (in_progress) · league snapshot (roster, lineup): 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC · projections: box scores through week 5 (evidence boundary week 5); a projection is this week's, never next week's · injuries: as-of 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC (FRESH) · sleeper_players: as-of 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC (FRESH)

Watchlist and withheld — research, not moves

Chig Okonkwo (TE, 6.27 this week) projects +1.24 above your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); the lineup would not change and his value after this week is not priced here

DEF: no like-for-like comparison — every roster player at that position is protected from the drop list (PIT DST: starting and not provably movable). An available DEF is not ranked against a player at another position, and whether a backup DEF is worth a roster spot is not priced here

K: no like-for-like comparison — every roster player at that position is protected from the drop list (Spencer Shrader: starting and not provably movable). An available K is not ranked against a player at another position, and whether a backup K is worth a roster spot is not priced here

RB: no like-for-like comparison — every roster player at that position is protected from the drop list (D'Andre Swift: starting and not provably movable; Rhamondre Stevenson: starting and not provably movable; Jahmyr Gibbs: projected 0 because he will not play this week (no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0), not because he is worth 0). An available RB is not ranked against a player at another position, and whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here

Same position, this week's projection only, lineup unchanged. Nothing here is a ranked recommendation, and a player's value beyond this week is not priced — that would need a rest-of-season model this repo does not have (rule #5).

Week transition

Still possible now:

nothing on this week's lineup can change: all 10 starters have kicked off
roster moves for week 7 (add/drop) are still yours to make in Sleeper, subject to its waiver processing, whose timing this page does not know; none is ranked here because no week-7 projection exists yet
no acquisition improves this week's best legal lineup; a pickup that would only sit on the bench is research, not a move

Must wait for next-week inputs:

week 7 projections: they need week-6 box scores, which arrive after the slate, and a week-7 league snapshot; this week's lineup gains are not next week's
what a pickup is worth beyond this week (byes, injuries, role): unpriced here, so it is never the reason for a move

Week 7 preview (schedule only):

week 7 schedule: 15 of 16 roster players have a timed game; first kickoff Fri 23 Oct 00:15 UTC
no week-7 row in the schedule for: Jakobi Meyers (JAX) — UNKNOWN, not read as a bye (the schedule declares no byes; a missing row and a week off look the same)
no week-7 projection, lineup or pickup is made here: the inputs for it do not exist yet

Nothing on this page is ever submitted to Sleeper. Every action is a move the owner makes by hand, and every deadline is read from the schedule — where the schedule could not be read, the deadline says UNKNOWN rather than guessing a kickoff.

Data & freshness

League snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTCProjections box scores through week 5, pulled 2026-10-18 16:51 UTCDesignations 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC (once-a-day player map)Page built 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC

2026 week 6 (in_progress) — usage/box scores through week 5 (lag 1w) · evidence boundary week 5

Published-build check: needs the hosted site and its script.

advanced_v1: baseline refined by advanced stats (season-fold CV 2019-2025: start/sit 63.4% vs baseline 62.5%; stack_v1 where Sleeper's pre-kickoff number is in: 64.7%, Sleeper 64.6%); inputs as of 2026-10-19T14:02:10+00:00; stack_v1 served for 15 of 303 advanced-projected skill players (Sleeper's numbers fetched 0.0 h ago; the rest had no pre-kickoff number or an untimed kickoff); 5 skill player(s) not projected: missing from Sleeper's pre-kickoff projections

Every input and what it is good enough for ↓

Free Agent Radar — every available player against your roster

Compared against your roster as of the league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC, with projections from box scores through week 5. Every verdict is for WEEK 6 only. A player on any roster in that snapshot is never listed; one claimed since it was taken still is, which is why availability stays UNVERIFIED.

pool618

with a projection321

compared to lineup43

missing evidence297

lineup gains0

By position: DEF 18 in pool, 15 projected, 1 compared, 3 without evidence, 14 locked · K 23 in pool, 16 projected, 3 compared, 7 without evidence, 13 locked · QB 90 in pool, 27 projected, 3 compared, 63 without evidence, 24 locked · RB 116 in pool, 58 projected, 12 compared, 58 without evidence, 46 locked · TE 149 in pool, 83 projected, 12 compared, 66 without evidence, 66 locked · WR 222 in pool, 122 projected, 12 compared, 100 without evidence, 99 locked.

Since the last record

Refreshed and revised since 2026-10-19T06:45:33+00:00: 1 pool change(s), 9 revision(s) to a projection or verdict, 1 evidence change(s).

Refreshed inputs: league snapshot 2026-10-19 06:45 UTC → 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; injuries 2026-10-19 06:45 UTC → 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; sleeper_league 2026-10-19 06:45 UTC → 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; sleeper_players 2026-10-18 09:41 UTC → 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC. A newer timestamp is not a change in the numbers; the list below is the numbers.

gone 2 left the pool: no longer eligible (inactive, no team, or position not projectable) and on no roster: Marquez Valdes-Scantling (WR), Hassan Haskins (RB)
projection Emari Demercado: 2.76 → 0.00 (-2.76)
projection Elijah Sarratt: 2.19 → 0.00 (-2.19)
projection Nicholas Singleton: 1.72 → 0.00 (-1.72)
projection Case Keenum: 9.32 → 0.00 (-9.32)
projection Cooper Rush: 5.45 → 0.00 (-5.45)
projection Tutu Atwell: 2.56 → 0.00 (-2.56)
projection Rashod Bateman: 6.85 → 0.00 (-6.85)
projection KaVontae Turpin: 3.02 → 0.00 (-3.02)
projection Sean Tucker: 2.36 → 0.00 (-2.36)
evidence sleeper_players: STALE → FRESH

Like for like: the previous decision-time record's radar block against this one, by player id. Nothing is recomputed; a first run or a week rollover is reported as no comparison, never as movement.

Candidates

Show

Sort

Showing 321 of 321 listed candidates; 297 more are in the pool without a projection and are not listed.

Chig Okonkwo RESEARCH
TE · WAS · proj 6.3 Too few games6.3proj
Verdict
RESEARCH research — lineup unchanged
Why
would not change this week's lineup; projects +1.24 above your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04). Research only: his value after this week is not priced here
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap +1.24
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.27 ± 4.37
why
receiving: 4.77 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 6.72 (tgt share 0.149 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.49; team 30.2 tgt/g) = 6.72 baseline -> 6.02 with advanced stats -> 6.27 stacked with Sleeper's 6.08 ± 4.37
Austin Ekeler COVERAGE
RB · WAS · proj 6.1 Too few games6.1proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.12 ± 2.37
why
receiving: 1.56 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 1.82 (tgt share 0.052 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 30.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.98 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 2.49 (carry share 0.135 unshrunk; team 29.6 car/g) = 4.31 baseline -> 4.33 with advanced stats -> 6.12 stacked with Sleeper's 6.08 ± 2.37 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Kaelon Black COVERAGE
RB · SF · proj 5.6 Steady5.6proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.59 ± 3.95
why
receiving: 1.10 × 1.153 × 1.196 = 1.52 (tgt share 0.015 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.42; team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 7.40 × 0.614 × 1.245 = 5.66 (carry share 0.266 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 7.18 baseline -> 5.29 with advanced stats -> 5.59 stacked with Sleeper's 5.16 ± 3.95
WAS DST COVERAGE
DEF · WAS · proj 4.04.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable DEF to compare him against; whether a backup DEF is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.95 ± 5.96
why
= 3.95 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Jordan James COVERAGE
RB · SF · proj 0.9 Too few games0.9proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.93 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.196 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.18 × 0.614 × 1.245 = 1.67 (carry share 0.078 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 1.67 baseline -> 0.92 with advanced stats -> 0.93 stacked with Sleeper's 0.61 ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
DJ Herman COVERAGE
RB · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.32 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 1.53 (tgt share 0.052 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 25.6 tgt/g) = 1.53 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
DeeJay Dallas COVERAGE
RB · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Falling0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.27 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 1.46 (tgt share 0.031 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.42; team 25.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.60 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 0.37 (carry share 0.020 unshrunk; team 30.4 car/g) = 1.83 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Demond Claiborne COVERAGE
RB · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.49 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 0.56 (tgt share 0.019 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 25.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.55 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 0.95 (carry share 0.051 unshrunk; team 30.4 car/g) = 1.51 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Evan McPherson COVERAGE
K · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable K to compare him against; whether a backup K is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
kicking: 1.00 × 9.885 × 1.000 = 9.89 (pts/g 10.80 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 9.88 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jacob Saylors COVERAGE
RB · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 37.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jaylen Wright COVERAGE
RB · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 25.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.69 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 2.26 (carry share 0.143 unshrunk; team 25.8 car/g) = 2.27 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Kaytron Allen COVERAGE
RB · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 30.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 4.13 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 2.54 (carry share 0.140 unshrunk; team 29.6 car/g) = 2.54 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Riley Patterson COVERAGE
K · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable K to compare him against; whether a backup K is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
kicking: 1.00 × 6.135 × 1.000 = 6.14 (pts/g 4.80 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 6.13 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Samaje Perine COVERAGE
RB · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.15 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 2.48 (tgt share 0.054 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.51; team 37.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 5.40 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 3.32 (carry share 0.237 unshrunk; team 22.8 car/g) = 5.80 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Sione Vaki COVERAGE
RB · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.65 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 1.90 (tgt share 0.027 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.51; team 37.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.00 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 1.84 (carry share 0.115 unshrunk; team 26.0 car/g) = 3.75 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Tahj Brooks COVERAGE
RB · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable RB to compare him against; whether a backup RB is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Will Reichard COVERAGE
K · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
COVERAGE no like-for-like comparison
Why
would not change this week's lineup, and the roster has no droppable K to compare him against; whether a backup K is worth a roster spot is not priced here
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
kicking: 1.00 × 11.635 × 1.000 = 11.64 (pts/g 13.60 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 11.63 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Luke Farrell BELOW
TE · SF · proj 3.4 Steady3.4proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -1.64 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -1.64
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.40 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.25 × 1.393 × 1.196 = 2.08 (tgt share 0.031 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.59; team 26.0 tgt/g) = 2.08 baseline -> 3.72 with advanced stats -> 3.40 stacked with Sleeper's 2.37 ± 1.50
Antonio Williams BELOW
WR · WAS · proj 5.4 Rising5.4proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -2.09 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -2.09
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.38 ± 3.42
why
receiving: 4.14 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 5.89 (tgt share 0.146 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.63; team 30.2 tgt/g) = 5.89 baseline -> 6.32 with advanced stats -> 5.38 stacked with Sleeper's 4.94 ± 3.42
Brandin Cooks BELOW
WR · SF · proj 5.0 Too few games5.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -2.45 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -2.45
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.02 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.44 × 1.404 × 1.196 = 2.42 (tgt share 0.056 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 2.42 baseline -> 3.73 with advanced stats -> 5.02 stacked with Sleeper's 5.03 ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Jacob Cowing BELOW
WR · SF · proj 4.5 Rising4.5proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -2.92 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -2.92
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.54 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.00 × 1.404 × 1.196 = 1.68 (tgt share 0.038 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.245 = 0.15 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 1.83 baseline -> 2.56 with advanced stats -> 4.54 stacked with Sleeper's 4.68 ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
John Bates BELOW
TE · WAS · proj 2.1 Too few games2.1proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -2.98 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -2.98
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.05 ± 1.86
why
receiving: 2.03 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 2.86 (tgt share 0.061 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.48; team 30.2 tgt/g) = 2.86 baseline -> 2.38 with advanced stats -> 2.05 stacked with Sleeper's 1.47 ± 1.86
Ben Sinnott BELOW
TE · WAS · proj 1.3 Falling1.3proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -3.78 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -3.78
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.26 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.69 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 0.98 (tgt share 0.023 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 30.2 tgt/g) = 0.98 baseline -> 1.08 with advanced stats -> 1.26 stacked with Sleeper's 0.78 ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Colson Yankoff BELOW
TE · WAS · proj 0.8 Falling0.8proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -4.25 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -4.25
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.78 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.80 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 1.13 (tgt share 0.026 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 30.2 tgt/g) = 1.13 baseline -> 0.09 with advanced stats -> 0.78 stacked with Sleeper's 0.52 ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Jordan Watkins BELOW
WR · SF · proj 2.8 Too few games2.8proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -4.68 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -4.68
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.79 ± 2.11
why
receiving: 2.17 × 1.404 × 1.196 = 3.64 (tgt share 0.083 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 3.64 baseline -> 4.34 with advanced stats -> 2.79 stacked with Sleeper's 2.06 ± 2.11 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Ben Yurosek BELOW
TE · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.89 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 1.24 (tgt share 0.034 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 25.8 tgt/g) = 1.24 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Erick All BELOW
TE · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 3.60 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 5.01 (tgt share 0.097 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 5.01 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Gavin Bartholomew BELOW
TE · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.30 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 3.21 (tgt share 0.113 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.41; team 25.8 tgt/g) = 3.21 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jackson Meeks BELOW
TE · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.21 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 1.69 (tgt share 0.032 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 37.6 tgt/g) = 1.69 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Mike Gesicki BELOW
TE · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.85 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 6.76 (tgt share 0.110 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.63; team 37.2 tgt/g) = 6.76 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Seydou Traore BELOW
TE · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 25.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Will Kacmarek BELOW
TE · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.04 against your cheapest droppable TE, Kenyon Sadiq (5.04); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable TE: Kenyon Sadiq (5.04 this week); gap -5.04
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.48 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 2.06 (tgt share 0.047 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.59; team 25.6 tgt/g) = 2.06 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Treylon Burks BELOW
WR · WAS · proj 2.4 Rising2.4proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -5.08 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -5.08
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.39 ± 2.24
why
receiving: 2.72 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 3.87 (tgt share 0.090 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 30.2 tgt/g) = 3.87 baseline -> 5.55 with advanced stats -> 2.39 stacked with Sleeper's 1.19 ± 2.24 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Dyami Brown BELOW
WR · WAS · proj 1.5 Steady1.5proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -6.00 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -6.00
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.47 ± 2.47
why
receiving: 3.00 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 4.26 (tgt share 0.099 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 30.2 tgt/g) = 4.26 baseline -> 2.80 with advanced stats -> 1.47 stacked with Sleeper's 0.89 ± 2.47 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Luke McCaffrey BELOW
WR · WAS · proj 0.3 Too few games0.3proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.14 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.14
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.33 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 30.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats -> 0.33 stacked with Sleeper's 0.16 ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Isaac TeSlaa BELOW
WR · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.47 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.47
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.07 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 5.71 (tgt share 0.101 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.68; team 37.6 tgt/g) = 5.71 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jared Wayne BELOW
WR · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Falling0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.47 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.47
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.83 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 3.97 (tgt share 0.083 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 3.97 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jeshaun Jones BELOW
WR · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.47 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.47
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.42 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 0.58 (tgt share 0.016 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 25.8 tgt/g) = 0.58 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Mitch Tinsley BELOW
WR · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.47 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.47
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.91 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 6.90 (tgt share 0.132 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 6.90 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Tai Felton BELOW
WR · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -7.47 against your cheapest droppable WR, Jakobi Meyers (7.47); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable WR: Jakobi Meyers (7.47 this week); gap -7.47
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.78 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 2.50 (tgt share 0.069 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 25.8 tgt/g) = 2.50 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Carson Wentz BELOW
QB · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -20.86 against your cheapest droppable QB, Matthew Stafford (20.86); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable QB: Matthew Stafford (20.86 this week); gap -20.86
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 13.663 × 1.000 = 13.66 (pass pts/g 11.52 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 3.86 × 0.775 × 1.000 = 2.99 (carries/g 4.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 16.66 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Malik Willis BELOW
QB · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -20.86 against your cheapest droppable QB, Matthew Stafford (20.86); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable QB: Matthew Stafford (20.86 this week); gap -20.86
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 10.404 × 1.000 = 10.40 (pass pts/g 7.59 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 4.79 × 0.775 × 1.000 = 3.71 (carries/g 5.40 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 14.12 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Marcus Mariota BELOW
QB · WAS · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Steady0.0proj
Verdict
BELOW below your cheapest droppable
Why
would not change this week's lineup and projects -20.86 against your cheapest droppable QB, Matthew Stafford (20.86); no reason to move
Versus
your cheapest droppable QB: Matthew Stafford (20.86 this week); gap -20.86
Lineup
unchanged this week — no starter is displaced, so there is no gain to show and no drop is proposed
Future value
not priced here (byes, injuries, role): a rest-of-season model does not exist in this repo and is not invented on this page
Lock
kicks off Tue 20 Oct 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 12.479 × 1.012 = 12.63 (pass pts/g 9.87 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.50) + rushing: 3.05 × 0.775 × 1.015 = 2.40 (carries/g 2.33 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.50; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.03 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: designated Out: projected 0
Kirk Cousins LOCKED
QB · LV · proj 18.0 Steady18.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
18.00 ± 8.72
why
passing: 1.00 × 17.504 × 1.049 = 18.36 (pass pts/g 18.95 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 2.91 × 0.775 × 1.061 = 2.40 (carries/g 2.40 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 20.76 baseline -> 18.00 with advanced stats ± 8.72
Deshaun Watson LOCKED
QB · CLE · proj 17.0 Steady17.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
17.04 ± 7.07
why
passing: 1.00 × 13.959 × 0.908 = 12.68 (pass pts/g 13.28 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 6.04 × 0.775 × 0.885 = 4.14 (carries/g 7.40 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 16.82 baseline -> 17.04 with advanced stats ± 7.07
Daniel Jones LOCKED
QB · IND · proj 15.2 Steady15.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
15.16 ± 6.43
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.764 × 1.073 = 12.63 (pass pts/g 9.77 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 3.16 × 0.775 × 1.092 = 2.68 (carries/g 2.80 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.31 baseline -> 15.16 with advanced stats ± 6.43
Jameis Winston LOCKED
QB · NYG · proj 14.7 Rising14.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
14.73 ± 6.94
why
passing: 1.00 × 14.068 × 1.012 = 14.24 (pass pts/g 13.30 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.57) + rushing: 2.90 × 0.775 × 1.015 = 2.28 (carries/g 2.25 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.57; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 16.52 baseline -> 14.73 with advanced stats ± 6.94
Cam Ward LOCKED
QB · TEN · proj 14.5 Steady14.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
14.54 ± 5.25
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.264 × 0.914 = 10.30 (pass pts/g 8.97 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 3.16 × 0.775 × 0.893 = 2.19 (carries/g 2.80 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 12.49 baseline -> 14.54 with advanced stats ± 5.25
Justin Herbert LOCKED
QB · LAC · proj 14.5 Steady14.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
14.47 ± 5.63
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.969 × 0.878 = 10.50 (pass pts/g 10.10 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 4.41 × 0.775 × 0.847 = 2.90 (carries/g 4.80 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 13.40 baseline -> 14.47 with advanced stats ± 5.63
Geno Smith LOCKED
QB · NYJ · proj 13.9 Falling13.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
13.93 ± 6.38
why
passing: 1.00 × 14.079 × 0.902 = 12.70 (pass pts/g 13.47 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 3.66 × 0.775 × 0.878 = 2.49 (carries/g 3.60 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.19 baseline -> 13.93 with advanced stats ± 6.38
Drew Lock LOCKED
QB · SEA · proj 13.3 Too few games13.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
13.29 ± 7.34
why
passing: 1.00 × 15.631 × 0.988 = 15.44 (pass pts/g 16.44 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 2.66 × 0.775 × 0.985 = 2.03 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 17.47 baseline -> 13.29 with advanced stats ± 7.34 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Tyler Huntley LOCKED
QB · BAL · proj 13.0 Too few games13.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
13.03 ± 6.62
why
passing: 1.00 × 12.767 × 0.982 = 12.53 (pass pts/g 9.28 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 4.26 × 0.775 × 0.977 = 3.23 (carries/g 5.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.76 baseline -> 13.03 with advanced stats ± 6.62 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Jalon Daniels LOCKED
QB · TB · proj 10.8 Rising10.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
10.76 ± 5.33
why
passing: 1.00 × 10.626 × 0.902 = 9.58 (pass pts/g 6.16 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.50) + rushing: 4.55 × 0.775 × 0.878 = 3.10 (carries/g 5.33 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.50; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 12.68 baseline -> 10.76 with advanced stats ± 5.33
Tyson Bagent LOCKED
QB · CHI · proj 10.5 Rising10.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
10.48 ± 5.69
why
passing: 1.00 × 9.772 × 1.110 = 10.85 (pass pts/g 4.45 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.50) + rushing: 3.05 × 0.775 × 1.138 = 2.69 (carries/g 2.33 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.50; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 13.54 baseline -> 10.48 with advanced stats ± 5.69
BAL DST LOCKED
DEF · BAL · proj 9.29.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
9.22 ± 5.96
why
= 9.22 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Tyler Bass LOCKED
K · BUF · proj 9.2 Steady9.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
9.18 ± 4.68
why
kicking: 1.00 × 8.510 × 1.000 = 8.51 (pts/g 8.60 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.51 baseline -> 9.18 with advanced stats ± 4.68
CAR DST LOCKED
DEF · CAR · proj 9.09.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
9.01 ± 5.96
why
= 9.01 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Cairo Santos LOCKED
K · CHI · proj 8.7 Steady8.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
8.72 ± 4.34
why
kicking: 1.00 × 7.885 × 1.000 = 7.89 (pts/g 7.60 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 7.88 baseline -> 8.72 with advanced stats ± 4.34
Andy Borregales LOCKED
K · NE · proj 8.3 Steady8.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
8.26 ± 3.92
why
kicking: 1.00 × 7.135 × 1.000 = 7.14 (pts/g 6.40 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 7.13 baseline -> 8.26 with advanced stats ± 3.92
Harrison Butker LOCKED
K · KC · proj 7.9 Steady7.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.90 ± 4.64
why
kicking: 1.00 × 8.440 × 1.000 = 8.44 (pts/g 8.50 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.57; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.44 baseline -> 7.90 with advanced stats ± 4.64
Brian Robinson LOCKED
RB · ATL · proj 7.9 Steady7.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.89 ± 4.61
why
receiving: 1.25 × 1.153 × 1.073 = 1.55 (tgt share 0.032 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.41; team 25.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 10.20 × 0.614 × 1.092 = 6.84 (carry share 0.309 unshrunk; team 33.0 car/g) = 8.39 baseline -> 7.89 with advanced stats ± 4.61
DEN DST LOCKED
DEF · DEN · proj 7.87.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.82 ± 5.96
why
= 7.82 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Pierre Strong LOCKED
RB · GB · proj 7.7 Too few games7.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.71 ± 4.70
why
receiving: 4.67 × 1.153 × 1.098 = 5.92 (tgt share 0.129 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 36.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.81 × 0.614 × 1.122 = 2.63 (carry share 0.192 unshrunk; team 19.8 car/g) = 8.54 baseline -> 7.71 with advanced stats ± 4.70 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Chris Boswell LOCKED
K · PIT · proj 7.6 Steady7.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.60 ± 4.54
why
kicking: 1.00 × 8.260 × 1.000 = 8.26 (pts/g 8.20 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.26 baseline -> 7.60 with advanced stats ± 4.54
TB DST LOCKED
DEF · TB · proj 7.67.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.58 ± 5.96
why
= 7.58 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
CLE DST LOCKED
DEF · CLE · proj 7.67.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.57 ± 5.96
why
= 7.57 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Ryan Fitzgerald LOCKED
K · CAR · proj 7.5 Steady7.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.52 ± 5.11
why
kicking: 1.00 × 9.297 × 1.000 = 9.30 (pts/g 10.00 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.57; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 9.30 baseline -> 7.52 with advanced stats ± 5.11
Daniel Carlson LOCKED
K · NO · proj 7.5 Steady7.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.48 ± 3.51
why
kicking: 1.00 × 6.385 × 1.000 = 6.39 (pts/g 5.20 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 6.38 baseline -> 7.48 with advanced stats ± 3.51
Stetson Bennett LOCKED
QB · LAR · proj 7.5 Too few games7.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.46 ± 7.29
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.449 × 1.245 = 14.25 (pass pts/g 0.52 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.08 × 0.775 × 1.306 = 3.12 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 17.37 baseline -> 7.46 with advanced stats ± 7.29 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Andre Szmyt LOCKED
K · CLE · proj 7.4 Steady7.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.44 ± 4.75
why
kicking: 1.00 × 8.635 × 1.000 = 8.64 (pts/g 8.80 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.63 baseline -> 7.44 with advanced stats ± 4.75
NO DST LOCKED
DEF · NO · proj 7.47.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.39 ± 5.96
why
= 7.39 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Chad Ryland LOCKED
K · ARI · proj 7.2 Steady7.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.21 ± 4.47
why
kicking: 1.00 × 8.135 × 1.000 = 8.14 (pts/g 8.00 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.13 baseline -> 7.21 with advanced stats ± 4.47
Jake Elliott LOCKED
K · PHI · proj 7.2 Steady7.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.17 ± 3.86
why
kicking: 1.00 × 7.010 × 1.000 = 7.01 (pts/g 6.20 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 7.01 baseline -> 7.17 with advanced stats ± 3.86
Xavier Hutchinson LOCKED
WR · HOU · proj 7.1 Falling7.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.14 ± 5.55
why
receiving: 7.00 × 1.404 × 0.951 = 9.34 (tgt share 0.181 shrunk to WR1 prior 0.249, w=0.66; team 34.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.40 × 0.614 × 0.939 = 0.23 (0.40 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.4 car/g) = 9.57 baseline -> 7.14 with advanced stats ± 5.55
Wil Lutz LOCKED
K · DEN · proj 7.1 Steady7.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.13 ± 3.92
why
kicking: 1.00 × 7.135 × 1.000 = 7.14 (pts/g 6.40 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 7.13 baseline -> 7.13 with advanced stats ± 3.92
Cade Otton LOCKED
TE · TB · proj 7.1 Steady7.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
7.06 ± 4.24
why
receiving: 5.19 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 6.52 (tgt share 0.185 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.62; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 6.52 baseline -> 7.06 with advanced stats ± 4.24
Joey Slye LOCKED
K · TEN · proj 7.0 Steady7.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.97 ± 3.10
why
kicking: 1.00 × 5.635 × 1.000 = 5.64 (pts/g 4.00 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 5.63 baseline -> 6.97 with advanced stats ± 3.10
AJ Barner LOCKED
TE · SEA · proj 6.9 Falling6.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.91 ± 3.90
why
receiving: 4.28 × 1.393 × 0.988 = 5.89 (tgt share 0.141 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.61; team 28.4 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 0.985 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 6.01 baseline -> 6.91 with advanced stats ± 3.90
Jason Sanders LOCKED
K · NYJ · proj 6.9 Steady6.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.88 ± 4.20
why
kicking: 1.00 × 7.635 × 1.000 = 7.64 (pts/g 7.20 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 7.63 baseline -> 6.88 with advanced stats ± 4.20
CHI DST LOCKED
DEF · CHI · proj 6.86.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.75 ± 5.96
why
= 6.75 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
BUF DST LOCKED
DEF · BUF · proj 6.76.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.67 ± 5.96
why
= 6.67 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
DeMario Douglas LOCKED
WR · NE · proj 6.6 Steady6.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.59 ± 4.20
why
receiving: 4.75 × 1.404 × 1.086 = 7.24 (tgt share 0.148 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.62; team 29.8 tgt/g) = 7.24 baseline -> 6.59 with advanced stats ± 4.20
Ryan Flournoy LOCKED
WR · DAL · proj 6.6 Falling6.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.59 ± 4.74
why
receiving: 5.13 × 1.404 × 1.135 = 8.17 (tgt share 0.145 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.67; team 37.2 tgt/g) = 8.17 baseline -> 6.59 with advanced stats ± 4.74
Kendrick Bourne LOCKED
WR · ARI · proj 6.6 Rising6.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.58 ± 4.54
why
receiving: 5.94 × 1.404 × 0.939 = 7.83 (tgt share 0.138 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.64; team 38.8 tgt/g) = 7.83 baseline -> 6.58 with advanced stats ± 4.54
Fernando Mendoza LOCKED
QB · LV · proj 6.5 Too few games6.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.50 ± 6.26
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.799 × 1.049 = 12.38 (pass pts/g 1.92 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.08 × 0.775 × 1.061 = 2.53 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 14.91 baseline -> 6.50 with advanced stats ± 6.26 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Tyjae Spears LOCKED
RB · TEN · proj 6.4 Steady6.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.41 ± 2.80
why
receiving: 3.06 × 1.153 × 0.914 = 3.23 (tgt share 0.112 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.44; team 28.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.40 × 0.614 × 0.893 = 1.87 (carry share 0.157 unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 5.09 baseline -> 6.41 with advanced stats ± 2.80
NYJ DST LOCKED
DEF · NYJ · proj 6.46.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.35 ± 5.96
why
= 6.35 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Laquon Treadwell LOCKED
WR · IND · proj 6.2 Rising6.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.25 ± 3.41
why
receiving: 3.90 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 5.88 (tgt share 0.114 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.65; team 33.2 tgt/g) = 5.88 baseline -> 6.25 with advanced stats ± 3.41
Nick Mullens LOCKED
QB · JAX · proj 6.2 Too few games6.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.15 ± 6.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.319 × 1.012 = 11.46 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.58 × 0.775 × 1.015 = 2.82 (carries/g 3.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 14.27 baseline -> 6.15 with advanced stats ± 6.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
ATL DST LOCKED
DEF · ATL · proj 6.16.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
6.09 ± 5.96
why
= 6.09 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
George Holani LOCKED
RB · SEA · proj 6.0 Steady6.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.98 ± 3.42
why
receiving: 2.69 × 1.153 × 0.988 = 3.07 (tgt share 0.085 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.44; team 28.4 tgt/g) + rushing: 5.20 × 0.614 × 0.985 = 3.15 (carry share 0.187 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 6.21 baseline -> 5.98 with advanced stats ± 3.42
Justice Hill LOCKED
RB · BAL · proj 6.0 Rising6.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.97 ± 2.70
why
receiving: 2.43 × 1.153 × 0.982 = 2.75 (tgt share 0.075 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.42; team 26.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.60 × 0.614 × 0.977 = 2.16 (carry share 0.111 unshrunk; team 32.4 car/g) = 4.91 baseline -> 5.97 with advanced stats ± 2.70
LAC DST LOCKED
DEF · LAC · proj 6.06.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.96 ± 5.96
why
= 5.96 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Jahan Dotson LOCKED
WR · ATL · proj 6.0 Steady6.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.95 ± 3.38
why
receiving: 3.86 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 5.82 (tgt share 0.135 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.58; team 25.2 tgt/g) = 5.82 baseline -> 5.95 with advanced stats ± 3.38
Makai Lemon LOCKED
WR · PHI · proj 5.9 · Questionable Rising5.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.95 ± 3.06
why
receiving: 4.06 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 5.18 (tgt share 0.154 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.61; team 28.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 0.885 = 0.11 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 24.2 car/g) = 5.28 baseline -> 5.95 with advanced stats ± 3.06
Devin Singletary LOCKED
RB · NYG · proj 5.9 Too few games5.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.90 ± 2.97
why
receiving: 2.19 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 2.55 (tgt share 0.082 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.25; team 32.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 4.56 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 2.85 (carry share 0.155 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 5.40 baseline -> 5.90 with advanced stats ± 2.97 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Efton Chism LOCKED
WR · NE · proj 5.8 Rising5.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.83 ± 3.00
why
receiving: 3.28 × 1.404 × 1.086 = 5.00 (tgt share 0.110 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 29.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.25 × 0.614 × 1.107 = 0.17 (0.25 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 30.2 car/g) = 5.17 baseline -> 5.83 with advanced stats ± 3.00 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Kimani Vidal LOCKED
RB · LAC · proj 5.8 Rising5.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.82 ± 1.93
why
receiving: 1.79 × 1.153 × 0.878 = 1.81 (tgt share 0.075 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.37; team 26.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.27 × 0.614 × 0.847 = 1.70 (carry share 0.111 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 3.51 baseline -> 5.82 with advanced stats ± 1.93
Darius Cooper LOCKED
WR · PHI · proj 5.8 Rising5.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.81 ± 1.92
why
receiving: 2.60 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 3.31 (tgt share 0.091 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 3.31 baseline -> 5.81 with advanced stats ± 1.92 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Cody White LOCKED
WR · LV · proj 5.8 Rising5.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.77 ± 3.37
why
receiving: 3.95 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 5.81 (tgt share 0.082 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.66; team 34.2 tgt/g) = 5.81 baseline -> 5.77 with advanced stats ± 3.37
Joshua Palmer LOCKED
WR · BUF · proj 5.8 Too few games5.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.77 ± 2.62
why
receiving: 2.72 × 1.404 × 1.184 = 4.52 (tgt share 0.105 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 4.52 baseline -> 5.77 with advanced stats ± 2.62 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Michael Mayer LOCKED
TE · LV · proj 5.6 Rising5.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.63 ± 3.93
why
receiving: 4.14 × 1.393 × 1.049 = 6.04 (tgt share 0.146 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.66; team 34.2 tgt/g) = 6.04 baseline -> 5.63 with advanced stats ± 3.93
TEN DST LOCKED
DEF · TEN · proj 5.55.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.52 ± 5.96
why
= 5.52 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Konata Mumpfield LOCKED
WR · LAR · proj 5.5 Mixed5.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.46 ± 4.34
why
receiving: 4.28 × 1.404 × 1.245 = 7.48 (tgt share 0.090 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.63; team 42.0 tgt/g) = 7.48 baseline -> 5.46 with advanced stats ± 4.34
Tommy DeVito LOCKED
QB · NE · proj 5.4 Too few games5.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.37 ± 6.41
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.619 × 1.086 = 12.61 (pass pts/g 1.20 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.08 × 0.775 × 1.107 = 2.64 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.26 baseline -> 5.37 with advanced stats ± 6.41 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Malachi Fields LOCKED
WR · NYG · proj 5.3 Falling5.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.31 ± 3.52
why
receiving: 4.27 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 6.06 (tgt share 0.104 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.64; team 32.6 tgt/g) = 6.06 baseline -> 5.31 with advanced stats ± 3.52
Rashid Shaheed LOCKED
WR · SEA · proj 5.2 Steady5.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.24 ± 3.67
why
receiving: 4.30 × 1.404 × 0.988 = 5.96 (tgt share 0.134 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.61; team 28.4 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.60 × 0.614 × 0.985 = 0.36 (0.60 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 6.32 baseline -> 5.24 with advanced stats ± 3.67
Noah Fant LOCKED
TE · NO · proj 5.2 Rising5.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.19 ± 3.05
why
receiving: 3.21 × 1.393 × 1.049 = 4.69 (tgt share 0.088 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.62; team 39.0 tgt/g) = 4.69 baseline -> 5.19 with advanced stats ± 3.05
Tyrod Taylor LOCKED
QB · GB · proj 5.2 Too few games5.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.19 ± 6.43
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.319 × 1.098 = 12.43 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.33 × 0.775 × 1.122 = 2.90 (carries/g 2.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 15.32 baseline -> 5.19 with advanced stats ± 6.43 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Darnell Washington LOCKED
TE · PIT · proj 5.1 Rising5.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.13 ± 2.60
why
receiving: 2.98 × 1.393 × 0.963 = 3.99 (tgt share 0.092 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.66; team 34.8 tgt/g) = 3.99 baseline -> 5.13 with advanced stats ± 2.60
Jaylin Noel LOCKED
WR · HOU · proj 5.1 Steady5.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.09 ± 2.90
why
receiving: 3.40 × 1.404 × 0.951 = 4.54 (tgt share 0.099 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 34.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.80 × 0.614 × 0.939 = 0.46 (0.80 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.4 car/g) = 5.00 baseline -> 5.09 with advanced stats ± 2.90 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Emmett Johnson LOCKED
RB · KC · proj 5.1 Steady5.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.08 ± 2.53
why
receiving: 1.60 × 1.153 × 1.061 = 1.96 (tgt share 0.042 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.40; team 29.5 tgt/g) + rushing: 4.00 × 0.614 × 1.076 = 2.65 (carry share 0.139 unshrunk; team 28.8 car/g) = 4.60 baseline -> 5.08 with advanced stats ± 2.53
Brycen Tremayne LOCKED
WR · CAR · proj 5.1 Rising5.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.06 ± 1.80
why
receiving: 2.25 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 3.10 (tgt share 0.061 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 3.10 baseline -> 5.06 with advanced stats ± 1.80 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Quentin Johnston LOCKED
WR · LAC · proj 5.0 Falling5.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.05 ± 3.46
why
receiving: 4.64 × 1.404 × 0.878 = 5.71 (tgt share 0.168 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.56; team 26.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.50 × 0.614 × 0.847 = 0.26 (0.50 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 5.97 baseline -> 5.05 with advanced stats ± 3.46
Oronde Gadsden LOCKED
TE · LAC · proj 5.0 Rising5.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.04 ± 3.01
why
receiving: 3.70 × 1.393 × 0.878 = 4.53 (tgt share 0.119 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.60; team 26.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 0.847 = 0.10 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 4.63 baseline -> 5.04 with advanced stats ± 3.01
Josh Cameron LOCKED
WR · JAX · proj 5.0 Rising5.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.03 ± 1.98
why
receiving: 2.40 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 3.41 (tgt share 0.089 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 27.0 tgt/g) = 3.41 baseline -> 5.03 with advanced stats ± 1.98 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Cooper Kupp LOCKED
WR · SEA · proj 5.0 Falling5.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
5.01 ± 2.57
why
receiving: 3.19 × 1.404 × 0.988 = 4.43 (tgt share 0.106 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.61; team 28.4 tgt/g) = 4.42 baseline -> 5.01 with advanced stats ± 2.57
Dawson Knox LOCKED
TE · BUF · proj 5.0 Rising5.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.97 ± 2.07
why
receiving: 1.84 × 1.393 × 1.184 = 3.03 (tgt share 0.069 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.59; team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.229 = 0.15 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 3.19 baseline -> 4.97 with advanced stats ± 2.07
LV DST LOCKED
DEF · LV · proj 5.05.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.97 ± 5.96
why
= 4.97 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Najee Harris LOCKED
RB · NYG · proj 4.9 Steady4.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.90 ± 2.63
why
receiving: 0.24 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 0.28 (tgt share 0.007 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 32.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 7.22 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 4.50 (carry share 0.245 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 4.79 baseline -> 4.90 with advanced stats ± 2.63 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk
KC Concepcion LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 4.9 Falling4.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.88 ± 4.38
why
receiving: 5.58 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 7.12 (tgt share 0.199 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.62; team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.80 × 0.614 × 0.885 = 0.44 (0.80 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 25.0 car/g) = 7.55 baseline -> 4.88 with advanced stats ± 4.38
Kayshon Boutte LOCKED
WR · HOU · proj 4.9 Rising4.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.86 ± 2.95
why
receiving: 3.81 × 1.404 × 0.951 = 5.09 (tgt share 0.105 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.66; team 34.2 tgt/g) = 5.08 baseline -> 4.86 with advanced stats ± 2.95
Charlie Kolar LOCKED
TE · LAC · proj 4.8 Too few games4.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.85 ± 2.01
why
receiving: 2.54 × 1.393 × 0.878 = 3.10 (tgt share 0.095 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 26.8 tgt/g) = 3.10 baseline -> 4.85 with advanced stats ± 2.01 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Tyler Goodson LOCKED
RB · DAL · proj 4.8 Too few games4.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.84 ± 2.72
why
receiving: 1.86 × 1.153 × 1.135 = 2.44 (tgt share 0.024 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.32; team 37.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.50 × 0.614 × 1.168 = 2.51 (carry share 0.164 unshrunk; team 21.4 car/g) = 4.95 baseline -> 4.84 with advanced stats ± 2.72 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Teagan Quitoriano LOCKED
TE · ARI · proj 4.8 Too few games4.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.83 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.69 × 1.393 × 0.939 = 2.21 (tgt share 0.043 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 38.8 tgt/g) = 2.21 baseline -> 4.83 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Tim Patrick LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 4.8 Too few games4.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.77 ± 2.11
why
receiving: 2.88 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 3.64 (tgt share 0.103 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 3.64 baseline -> 4.77 with advanced stats ± 2.11 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Jerry Jeudy LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 4.7 Rising4.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.66 ± 2.72
why
receiving: 3.68 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 4.69 (tgt share 0.128 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.57; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 4.69 baseline -> 4.66 with advanced stats ± 2.72
Darnell Mooney LOCKED
WR · NYG · proj 4.6 · Questionable Rising4.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.59 ± 3.05
why
receiving: 3.62 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 5.14 (tgt share 0.104 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.64; team 32.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 5.26 baseline -> 4.59 with advanced stats ± 3.05
Ty Johnson LOCKED
RB · BUF · proj 4.6 Steady4.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.56 ± 1.76
why
receiving: 2.17 × 1.153 × 1.184 = 2.96 (tgt share 0.135 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.29; team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.33 × 0.614 × 1.229 = 0.25 (carry share 0.011 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 3.20 baseline -> 4.56 with advanced stats ± 1.76
Tua Tagovailoa LOCKED
QB · ATL · proj 4.5 Too few games4.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.46 ± 6.15
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.409 × 1.073 = 12.25 (pass pts/g 0.36 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 2.83 × 0.775 × 1.092 = 2.39 (carries/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 14.64 baseline -> 4.46 with advanced stats ± 6.15 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Dylan Laube LOCKED
RB · LV · proj 4.4 Steady4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.45 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.60 × 1.153 × 1.049 = 0.73 (tgt share 0.018 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 34.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.80 × 0.614 × 1.061 = 0.52 (carry share 0.030 unshrunk; team 26.6 car/g) = 1.25 baseline -> 4.45 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Colby Parkinson LOCKED
TE · LAR · proj 4.4 Falling4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.41 ± 2.07
why
receiving: 1.84 × 1.393 × 1.245 = 3.19 (tgt share 0.044 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 3.19 baseline -> 4.41 with advanced stats ± 2.07 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Seth McGowan LOCKED
RB · IND · proj 4.4 Rising4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.40 ± 2.25
why
receiving: 1.45 × 1.153 × 1.073 = 1.80 (tgt share 0.024 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.48; team 33.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.40 × 0.614 × 1.092 = 2.28 (carry share 0.124 unshrunk; team 27.4 car/g) = 4.08 baseline -> 4.40 with advanced stats ± 2.25
John Metchie LOCKED
WR · CAR · proj 4.4 Rising4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.39 ± 3.05
why
receiving: 3.81 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 5.26 (tgt share 0.088 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.56; team 36.8 tgt/g) = 5.26 baseline -> 4.39 with advanced stats ± 3.05
Isaiah Bond LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 4.4 Rising4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.38 ± 2.04
why
receiving: 2.77 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 3.53 (tgt share 0.095 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 3.53 baseline -> 4.38 with advanced stats ± 2.04 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
J.J. McCarthy LOCKED
QB · NYG · proj 4.4 Too few games4.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.36 ± 5.91
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.319 × 1.012 = 11.46 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 3.33 × 0.775 × 1.015 = 2.62 (carries/g 2.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 14.08 baseline -> 4.36 with advanced stats ± 5.91 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Eli Raridon LOCKED
TE · NE · proj 4.3 Rising4.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.35 ± 2.18
why
receiving: 2.22 × 1.393 × 1.086 = 3.36 (tgt share 0.076 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.57; team 29.8 tgt/g) = 3.36 baseline -> 4.35 with advanced stats ± 2.18
Tommy Tremble LOCKED
TE · CAR · proj 4.3 Rising4.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.33 ± 2.97
why
receiving: 3.34 × 1.393 × 0.982 = 4.57 (tgt share 0.102 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.62; team 36.8 tgt/g) = 4.57 baseline -> 4.33 with advanced stats ± 2.97
Isaiah Williams LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 4.2 Falling4.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.24 ± 2.36
why
receiving: 3.04 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 3.85 (tgt share 0.101 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.61; team 27.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.40 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 0.22 (0.40 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 26.2 car/g) = 4.07 baseline -> 4.24 with advanced stats ± 2.36
Chris Moore LOCKED
WR · BAL · proj 4.2 Too few games4.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.16 ± 1.75
why
receiving: 2.19 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 3.01 (tgt share 0.082 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 26.6 tgt/g) = 3.01 baseline -> 4.16 with advanced stats ± 1.75 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Evan Engram LOCKED
TE · DEN · proj 4.1 Rising4.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.14 ± 3.31
why
receiving: 3.95 × 1.393 × 0.927 = 5.10 (tgt share 0.116 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.62; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 5.10 baseline -> 4.14 with advanced stats ± 3.31
Gunnar Helm LOCKED
TE · TEN · proj 4.1 Falling4.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.10 ± 2.84
why
receiving: 3.43 × 1.393 × 0.914 = 4.37 (tgt share 0.091 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.61; team 28.6 tgt/g) = 4.37 baseline -> 4.10 with advanced stats ± 2.84
Ted Hurst LOCKED
WR · TB · proj 4.1 Falling4.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.09 ± 2.75
why
receiving: 3.75 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 4.74 (tgt share 0.132 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.57; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 4.74 baseline -> 4.09 with advanced stats ± 2.75
Reggie Virgil LOCKED
WR · ARI · proj 4.0 Too few games4.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.04 ± 3.22
why
receiving: 4.22 × 1.404 × 0.939 = 5.56 (tgt share 0.109 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 38.8 tgt/g) = 5.56 baseline -> 4.04 with advanced stats ± 3.22 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Davis Allen LOCKED
TE · LAR · proj 4.0 Steady4.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
4.03 ± 2.03
why
receiving: 1.80 × 1.393 × 1.245 = 3.12 (tgt share 0.043 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 3.12 baseline -> 4.03 with advanced stats ± 2.03 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Kaleb Johnson LOCKED
RB · GB · proj 3.9 Steady3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.94 ± 2.47
why
receiving: 0.60 × 1.153 × 1.098 = 0.76 (tgt share 0.017 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 36.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 5.40 × 0.614 × 1.122 = 3.72 (carry share 0.273 unshrunk; team 19.8 car/g) = 4.48 baseline -> 3.94 with advanced stats ± 2.47 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Mason Taylor LOCKED
TE · NYJ · proj 3.9 Too few games3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.94 ± 2.62
why
receiving: 3.21 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 4.03 (tgt share 0.115 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 4.03 baseline -> 3.94 with advanced stats ± 2.62 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Mark Redman LOCKED
TE · GB · proj 3.9 Too few games3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.94 ± 2.40
why
receiving: 2.41 × 1.393 × 1.098 = 3.69 (tgt share 0.067 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 36.2 tgt/g) = 3.69 baseline -> 3.94 with advanced stats ± 2.40 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Noah Gray LOCKED
TE · KC · proj 3.9 Rising3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.93 ± 1.99
why
receiving: 2.07 × 1.393 × 1.061 = 3.05 (tgt share 0.068 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.57; team 29.5 tgt/g) = 3.06 baseline -> 3.93 with advanced stats ± 1.99
Kenny Pickett LOCKED
QB · CAR · proj 3.9 Too few games3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.91 ± 4.58
why
passing: 1.00 × 9.055 × 0.982 = 8.89 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 2.66 × 0.775 × 0.977 = 2.02 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 10.90 baseline -> 3.91 with advanced stats ± 4.58 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
CJ Donaldson LOCKED
RB · NO · proj 3.9 Rising3.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.88 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.00 × 1.153 × 1.049 = 1.21 (tgt share 0.026 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 39.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.20 × 0.614 × 1.061 = 1.43 (carry share 0.095 unshrunk; team 23.2 car/g) = 2.64 baseline -> 3.88 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Devontez Walker LOCKED
WR · BAL · proj 3.8 Rising3.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.81 ± 1.93
why
receiving: 2.42 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 3.33 (tgt share 0.064 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.55; team 26.6 tgt/g) = 3.33 baseline -> 3.81 with advanced stats ± 1.93
Kyle Williams LOCKED
WR · NE · proj 3.6 Steady3.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.61 ± 1.77
why
receiving: 2.00 × 1.404 × 1.086 = 3.05 (tgt share 0.067 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 29.8 tgt/g) = 3.05 baseline -> 3.61 with advanced stats ± 1.77 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Elijah Higgins LOCKED
TE · ARI · proj 3.6 Rising3.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.59 ± 1.95
why
receiving: 2.29 × 1.393 × 0.939 = 2.99 (tgt share 0.051 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.64; team 38.8 tgt/g) = 2.99 baseline -> 3.59 with advanced stats ± 1.95
Bryce Lance LOCKED
WR · NO · proj 3.5 Rising3.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.51 ± 3.16
why
receiving: 3.70 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 5.45 (tgt share 0.082 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.68; team 39.0 tgt/g) = 5.46 baseline -> 3.51 with advanced stats ± 3.16
Corey Kiner LOCKED
RB · NE · proj 3.5 Steady3.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.48 ± 1.77
why
receiving: 0.40 × 1.153 × 1.086 = 0.50 (tgt share 0.013 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 29.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 4.00 × 0.614 × 1.107 = 2.72 (carry share 0.132 unshrunk; team 30.2 car/g) = 3.22 baseline -> 3.48 with advanced stats ± 1.77 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Jalen Royals LOCKED
WR · KC · proj 3.5 Mixed3.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.48 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.25 × 1.404 × 1.061 = 1.86 (tgt share 0.042 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 1.86 baseline -> 3.48 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Skyler Bell LOCKED
WR · BUF · proj 3.5 Too few games3.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.47 ± 2.78
why
receiving: 2.89 × 1.404 × 1.184 = 4.80 (tgt share 0.111 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 4.80 baseline -> 3.47 with advanced stats ± 2.78 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Jeremy Ruckert LOCKED
TE · NYJ · proj 3.4 Too few games3.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.43 ± 1.79
why
receiving: 2.19 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 2.75 (tgt share 0.084 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.51; team 27.8 tgt/g) = 2.75 baseline -> 3.43 with advanced stats ± 1.79
Cole Kmet LOCKED
TE · CHI · proj 3.4 Rising3.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.42 ± 2.01
why
receiving: 2.00 × 1.393 × 1.110 = 3.09 (tgt share 0.056 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.64; team 32.2 tgt/g) = 3.09 baseline -> 3.42 with advanced stats ± 2.01
Elic Ayomanor LOCKED
WR · TEN · proj 3.4 Falling3.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.41 ± 2.11
why
receiving: 2.83 × 1.404 × 0.914 = 3.63 (tgt share 0.084 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.61; team 28.6 tgt/g) = 3.63 baseline -> 3.41 with advanced stats ± 2.11
ARI DST LOCKED
DEF · ARI · proj 3.43.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.40 ± 5.96
why
= 3.40 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)
Chris Rodriguez LOCKED
RB · JAX · proj 3.4 Falling3.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.38 ± 2.05
why
receiving: 0.20 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 0.23 (tgt share 0.007 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 27.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 5.60 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 3.49 (carry share 0.201 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 3.73 baseline -> 3.38 with advanced stats ± 2.05 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Foster Moreau LOCKED
TE · HOU · proj 3.3 Falling3.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.33 ± 2.10
why
receiving: 2.43 × 1.393 × 0.951 = 3.22 (tgt share 0.070 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.66; team 34.2 tgt/g) = 3.22 baseline -> 3.33 with advanced stats ± 2.10
Troy Franklin LOCKED
WR · DEN · proj 3.1 Mixed3.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.13 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.62 × 1.404 × 0.927 = 2.11 (tgt share 0.056 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.25 × 0.614 × 0.908 = 0.14 (0.25 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.6 car/g) = 2.25 baseline -> 3.13 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Jalen Brooks LOCKED
WR · ARI · proj 3.1 Rising3.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.09 ± 1.51
why
receiving: 1.98 × 1.404 × 0.939 = 2.61 (tgt share 0.051 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 38.8 tgt/g) = 2.60 baseline -> 3.09 with advanced stats ± 1.51 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Jonnu Smith LOCKED
TE · GB · proj 3.1 Too few games3.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.09 ± 2.31
why
receiving: 2.33 × 1.393 × 1.098 = 3.56 (tgt share 0.058 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.57; team 36.2 tgt/g) = 3.56 baseline -> 3.09 with advanced stats ± 2.31
Nate Adkins LOCKED
TE · DEN · proj 3.0 Too few games3.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.04 ± 1.73
why
receiving: 1.92 × 1.393 × 0.927 = 2.48 (tgt share 0.058 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.49; team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.33 × 0.614 × 0.908 = 0.19 (0.33 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.6 car/g) = 2.66 baseline -> 3.04 with advanced stats ± 1.73
Mason Rudolph LOCKED
QB · PIT · proj 3.0 Too few games3.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
3.01 ± 4.55
why
passing: 1.00 × 9.055 × 0.963 = 8.72 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 2.86 × 0.775 × 0.954 = 2.12 (carries/g 1.50 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 10.84 baseline -> 3.01 with advanced stats ± 4.55 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Tory Horton LOCKED
WR · SEA · proj 3.0 Too few games3.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.98 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.75 × 1.404 × 0.988 = 2.42 (tgt share 0.062 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 28.4 tgt/g) = 2.42 baseline -> 2.98 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Bo Melton LOCKED
WR · GB · proj 2.8 Rising2.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.82 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.60 × 1.404 × 1.098 = 2.47 (tgt share 0.044 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 36.2 tgt/g) = 2.47 baseline -> 2.82 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Calvin Ridley LOCKED
WR · TEN · proj 2.8 Rising2.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.80 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.99 × 1.404 × 0.914 = 2.55 (tgt share 0.070 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 2.55 baseline -> 2.80 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Tyrone Tracy LOCKED
RB · NYG · proj 2.8 Rising2.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.80 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.60 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 0.70 (tgt share 0.018 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 32.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.40 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 0.87 (carry share 0.048 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 1.57 baseline -> 2.80 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Mitchell Evans LOCKED
TE · CAR · proj 2.8 Rising2.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.80 ± 1.55
why
receiving: 1.75 × 1.393 × 0.982 = 2.39 (tgt share 0.048 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 2.39 baseline -> 2.80 with advanced stats ± 1.55 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Shedeur Sanders LOCKED
QB · CLE · proj 2.7 Too few games2.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.74 ± 5.13
why
passing: 1.00 × 11.319 × 0.908 = 10.28 (pass pts/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.25) + rushing: 2.83 × 0.775 × 0.885 = 1.94 (carries/g 0.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.25; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 12.22 baseline -> 2.74 with advanced stats ± 5.13 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Ian Thomas LOCKED
TE · LV · proj 2.6 Rising2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.65 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.22 × 1.393 × 1.049 = 1.78 (tgt share 0.036 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 1.78 baseline -> 2.65 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Zachariah Branch LOCKED
WR · ATL · proj 2.6 Steady2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.62 ± 1.95
why
receiving: 2.22 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 3.35 (tgt share 0.063 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.58; team 25.2 tgt/g) = 3.35 baseline -> 2.62 with advanced stats ± 1.95
Charlie Woerner LOCKED
TE · ATL · proj 2.6 Rising2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.59 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.20 × 1.393 × 1.073 = 1.79 (tgt share 0.048 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 25.2 tgt/g) = 1.79 baseline -> 2.59 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Mo Alie-Cox LOCKED
TE · IND · proj 2.6 Too few games2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.57 ± 1.84
why
receiving: 1.89 × 1.393 × 1.073 = 2.83 (tgt share 0.038 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.46; team 33.2 tgt/g) = 2.83 baseline -> 2.57 with advanced stats ± 1.84 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Jackson Hawes LOCKED
TE · BUF · proj 2.6 Too few games2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.56 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.59 × 1.393 × 1.184 = 0.97 (tgt share 0.023 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 0.97 baseline -> 2.56 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Nate Boerkircher LOCKED
TE · JAX · proj 2.6 Rising2.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.55 ± 1.58
why
receiving: 1.72 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 2.43 (tgt share 0.056 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.54; team 27.0 tgt/g) = 2.43 baseline -> 2.55 with advanced stats ± 1.58
Jaleel McLaughlin LOCKED
RB · CLE · proj 2.5 Falling2.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.55 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.61 × 1.153 × 0.908 = 0.64 (tgt share 0.021 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.68 × 0.614 × 0.885 = 0.37 (carry share 0.027 unshrunk; team 25.0 car/g) = 1.02 baseline -> 2.55 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Brenen Thompson LOCKED
WR · LAC · proj 2.5 Too few games2.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.52 ± 2.21
why
receiving: 3.09 × 1.404 × 0.878 = 3.81 (tgt share 0.115 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 26.8 tgt/g) = 3.81 baseline -> 2.52 with advanced stats ± 2.21 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Austin Hooper LOCKED
TE · ATL · proj 2.5 Falling2.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.51 ± 2.03
why
receiving: 2.09 × 1.393 × 1.073 = 3.12 (tgt share 0.095 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.45; team 25.2 tgt/g) = 3.12 baseline -> 2.51 with advanced stats ± 2.03
Tez Johnson LOCKED
WR · TB · proj 2.5 Mixed2.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.51 ± 1.59
why
receiving: 2.00 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 2.53 (tgt share 0.068 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.40 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 0.22 (0.40 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.2 car/g) = 2.75 baseline -> 2.51 with advanced stats ± 1.59 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Lan Larison LOCKED
RB · NE · proj 2.5 Too few games2.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.45 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.92 × 1.153 × 1.086 = 2.41 (tgt share 0.065 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 29.8 tgt/g) = 2.41 baseline -> 2.45 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk
Zach Ertz LOCKED
TE · PHI · proj 2.4 Mixed2.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.44 ± 1.94
why
receiving: 2.35 × 1.393 × 0.908 = 2.98 (tgt share 0.092 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.49; team 28.6 tgt/g) = 2.98 baseline -> 2.44 with advanced stats ± 1.94
Tyler Badie LOCKED
RB · DEN · proj 2.4 · Questionable Steady2.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.42 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.77 × 1.153 × 0.927 = 1.90 (tgt share 0.059 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.40; team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.15 × 0.614 × 0.908 = 0.64 (carry share 0.049 unshrunk; team 23.6 car/g) = 2.54 baseline -> 2.42 with advanced stats ± 1.50
Jonathan Mingo LOCKED
WR · DAL · proj 2.4 Too few games2.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.39 ± 2.09
why
receiving: 2.26 × 1.404 × 1.135 = 3.61 (tgt share 0.061 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 3.61 baseline -> 2.39 with advanced stats ± 2.09 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Sterling Shepard LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 2.4 Too few games2.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.37 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.09 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 1.38 (tgt share 0.039 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 1.38 baseline -> 2.37 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Ray Davis LOCKED
RB · BUF · proj 2.3 Steady2.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.35 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.50 × 1.153 × 1.184 = 0.68 (tgt share 0.019 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.03 × 0.614 × 1.229 = 0.78 (carry share 0.035 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 1.46 baseline -> 2.35 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Daniel Bellinger LOCKED
TE · TEN · proj 2.2 Steady2.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.23 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.67 × 1.393 × 0.914 = 2.12 (tgt share 0.049 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.61; team 28.6 tgt/g) = 2.12 baseline -> 2.23 with advanced stats ± 1.50
Frank Gore LOCKED
RB · BUF · proj 2.2 Too few games2.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.15 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.184 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.40 × 0.614 × 1.229 = 1.06 (carry share 0.048 unshrunk; team 29.4 car/g) = 1.06 baseline -> 2.15 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Brevyn Spann-Ford LOCKED
TE · DAL · proj 2.1 Rising2.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.12 ± 1.74
why
receiving: 1.69 × 1.393 × 1.135 = 2.68 (tgt share 0.032 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.67; team 37.2 tgt/g) = 2.68 baseline -> 2.12 with advanced stats ± 1.74
Olamide Zaccheaus LOCKED
WR · ATL · proj 2.1 Falling2.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.08 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.40 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 2.11 (tgt share 0.056 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 25.2 tgt/g) = 2.11 baseline -> 2.08 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Deven Thompkins LOCKED
WR · LV · proj 2.0 Too few games2.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
2.02 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.95 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 1.40 (tgt share 0.028 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 1.40 baseline -> 2.02 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Elijah Arroyo LOCKED
TE · SEA · proj 1.9 · Doubtful Too few games1.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.93 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.07 × 1.393 × 0.988 = 1.47 (tgt share 0.038 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 28.4 tgt/g) = 1.48 baseline -> 1.93 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Malik Benson LOCKED
WR · LV · proj 1.9 Rising1.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.89 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.60 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 2.36 (tgt share 0.047 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 34.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.061 = 0.13 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 26.6 car/g) = 2.49 baseline -> 1.89 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Adam Trautman LOCKED
TE · DEN · proj 1.9 Too few games1.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.89 ± 1.51
why
receiving: 1.80 × 1.393 × 0.927 = 2.32 (tgt share 0.062 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 2.32 baseline -> 1.89 with advanced stats ± 1.51 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Brady Russell LOCKED
RB · SEA · proj 1.9 Falling1.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.89 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.73 × 1.153 × 0.988 = 0.84 (tgt share 0.026 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 28.4 tgt/g) = 0.84 baseline -> 1.89 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Hayden Rucci LOCKED
TE · LAC · proj 1.9 Too few games1.9proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.86 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.54 × 1.393 × 0.878 = 0.66 (tgt share 0.020 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 26.8 tgt/g) = 0.66 baseline -> 1.86 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Blake Whiteheart LOCKED
TE · CLE · proj 1.8 Too few games1.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.82 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.60 × 1.393 × 0.908 = 2.02 (tgt share 0.035 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.49; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 2.02 baseline -> 1.82 with advanced stats ± 1.50
Isaiah Davis LOCKED
RB · NYJ · proj 1.8 Steady1.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.77 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.48 × 1.153 × 0.902 = 0.50 (tgt share 0.017 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 27.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.57 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 0.31 (carry share 0.022 unshrunk; team 26.2 car/g) = 0.81 baseline -> 1.77 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Zonovan Knight LOCKED
RB · ARI · proj 1.7 Too few games1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.74 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.939 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 38.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.09 × 0.614 × 0.924 = 1.19 (carry share 0.086 unshrunk; team 24.4 car/g) = 1.19 baseline -> 1.74 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Kevin Austin LOCKED
WR · NO · proj 1.7 Too few games1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.74 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.22 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 1.79 (tgt share 0.031 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 39.0 tgt/g) = 1.79 baseline -> 1.74 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Eric Saubert LOCKED
TE · SEA · proj 1.7 Falling1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.70 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.17 × 1.393 × 0.988 = 1.61 (tgt share 0.021 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.61; team 28.4 tgt/g) = 1.61 baseline -> 1.70 with advanced stats ± 1.50
Payne Durham LOCKED
TE · TB · proj 1.7 Too few games1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.68 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.67 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 2.10 (tgt share 0.033 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.40; team 29.2 tgt/g) = 2.10 baseline -> 1.68 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy
Chris Manhertz LOCKED
TE · NYG · proj 1.7 Too few games1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.67 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 32.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 1.67 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Jordan Whittington LOCKED
WR · LAR · proj 1.7 Too few games1.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.67 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.96 × 1.404 × 1.245 = 1.68 (tgt share 0.023 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 1.68 baseline -> 1.67 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Josh Cuevas LOCKED
TE · BAL · proj 1.6 Steady1.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.62 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.00 × 1.393 × 0.982 = 1.36 (tgt share 0.037 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 26.6 tgt/g) = 1.36 baseline -> 1.62 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Johnny Mundt LOCKED
TE · PHI · proj 1.6 Falling1.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.59 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.18 × 1.393 × 0.908 = 1.50 (tgt share 0.041 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 1.50 baseline -> 1.59 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Lewis Bond LOCKED
WR · HOU · proj 1.5 Too few games1.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.55 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.37 × 1.404 × 0.951 = 1.83 (tgt share 0.040 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 1.83 baseline -> 1.55 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Jahdae Walker LOCKED
WR · CHI · proj 1.5 Too few games1.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.53 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.98 × 1.404 × 1.110 = 1.52 (tgt share 0.030 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 32.2 tgt/g) = 1.52 baseline -> 1.53 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk
Theo Wease LOCKED
WR · LAC · proj 1.5 Too few games1.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.51 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.28 × 1.404 × 0.878 = 1.57 (tgt share 0.048 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 26.8 tgt/g) = 1.57 baseline -> 1.51 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Marvin Mims LOCKED
WR · DEN · proj 1.5 Too few games1.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.49 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.68 × 1.404 × 0.927 = 2.18 (tgt share 0.057 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.33 × 0.614 × 0.908 = 0.19 (0.33 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.6 car/g) = 2.37 baseline -> 1.49 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Zavion Thomas LOCKED
WR · CHI · proj 1.4 Rising1.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.44 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.48 × 1.404 × 1.110 = 0.74 (tgt share 0.015 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 32.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.25 × 0.614 × 1.138 = 0.17 (0.25 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 36.6 car/g) = 0.92 baseline -> 1.44 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Jelani Woods LOCKED
TE · NYJ · proj 1.4 Steady1.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.43 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.04 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 1.31 (tgt share 0.037 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 1.31 baseline -> 1.43 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Kalel Mullings LOCKED
RB · TEN · proj 1.4 Too few games1.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.42 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.914 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 28.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.20 × 0.614 × 0.893 = 0.66 (carry share 0.056 unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 0.66 baseline -> 1.42 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Trent Sherfield LOCKED
WR · BUF · proj 1.4 Too few games1.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.40 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.184 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 1.40 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Lil'Jordan Humphrey LOCKED
WR · DEN · proj 1.3 Too few games1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.35 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.75 × 1.404 × 0.927 = 2.28 (tgt share 0.060 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 2.28 baseline -> 1.35 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Chimere Dike LOCKED
WR · TEN · proj 1.3 Rising1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.34 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.40 × 1.404 × 0.914 = 1.80 (tgt share 0.049 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 1.80 baseline -> 1.34 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Deion Burks LOCKED
WR · IND · proj 1.3 Steady1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.34 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.30 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 1.96 (tgt share 0.039 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 33.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.67 × 0.614 × 1.092 = 0.45 (0.67 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.4 car/g) = 2.41 baseline -> 1.34 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
LeQuint Allen LOCKED
RB · JAX · proj 1.3 Falling1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.30 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.48 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 1.73 (tgt share 0.043 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.39; team 27.0 tgt/g) = 1.73 baseline -> 1.30 with advanced stats ± 1.50
Kaden Davis LOCKED
WR · CHI · proj 1.3 Too few games1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.29 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.110 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 32.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 1.29 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Dareke Young LOCKED
WR · LV · proj 1.3 Steady1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.28 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.76 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 1.12 (tgt share 0.022 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 1.12 baseline -> 1.28 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Oscar Delp LOCKED
TE · NO · proj 1.3 Mixed1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.28 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.38 × 1.393 × 1.049 = 0.55 (tgt share 0.010 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 39.0 tgt/g) = 0.55 baseline -> 1.28 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Ja'seem Reed LOCKED
WR · CAR · proj 1.3 Too few games1.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.27 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.94 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 1.30 (tgt share 0.026 unshrunk (no prior for role WR8); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 1.30 baseline -> 1.27 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR8: usage unshrunk
Sam Roush LOCKED
TE · CHI · proj 1.2 Falling1.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.22 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.19 × 1.393 × 1.110 = 1.84 (tgt share 0.037 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 32.2 tgt/g) = 1.84 baseline -> 1.22 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Jimmy Horn LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 1.2 Too few games1.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.21 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.08 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 1.38 (tgt share 0.029 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 1.38 baseline -> 1.21 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
J. Michael Sturdivant LOCKED
WR · GB · proj 1.2 Falling1.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.17 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.03 × 1.404 × 1.098 = 1.58 (tgt share 0.028 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 36.2 tgt/g) = 1.58 baseline -> 1.17 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Luke Schoonmaker LOCKED
TE · DAL · proj 1.2 Too few games1.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.16 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.00 × 1.393 × 1.135 = 1.57 (tgt share 0.027 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 1.57 baseline -> 1.16 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Omar Cooper LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 1.1 Too few games1.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.14 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.21 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 1.53 (tgt share 0.043 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 1.53 baseline -> 1.14 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Drew Ogletree LOCKED
TE · IND · proj 1.1 Falling1.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.12 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.76 × 1.393 × 1.073 = 1.14 (tgt share 0.023 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 33.2 tgt/g) = 1.14 baseline -> 1.12 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Cyrus Allen LOCKED
WR · KC · proj 1.1 Too few games1.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.10 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.13 × 1.404 × 1.061 = 1.69 (tgt share 0.038 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 1.69 baseline -> 1.10 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Keleki Latu LOCKED
TE · BUF · proj 1.1 Steady1.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.08 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.184 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 1.08 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Chris Blair LOCKED
WR · ATL · proj 1.1 Falling1.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.08 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.81 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 1.22 (tgt share 0.032 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 25.2 tgt/g) = 1.23 baseline -> 1.08 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine LOCKED
WR · IND · proj 1.0 Too few games1.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
1.02 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.46 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 0.69 (tgt share 0.014 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 33.2 tgt/g) = 0.69 baseline -> 1.02 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Lew Nichols LOCKED
RB · PIT · proj 1.0 Falling1.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.99 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.963 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 34.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.68 × 0.614 × 0.954 = 0.40 (carry share 0.031 unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 0.40 baseline -> 0.99 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Brashard Smith LOCKED
RB · KC · proj 1.0 Too few games1.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.97 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.45 × 1.153 × 1.061 = 0.55 (tgt share 0.015 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 0.55 baseline -> 0.97 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Jalen Cropper LOCKED
WR · NO · proj 0.8 Too few games0.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.85 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 39.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.85 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Robert Tonyan LOCKED
TE · PIT · proj 0.8 Too few games0.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.83 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 1.12 × 1.393 × 0.963 = 1.51 (tgt share 0.032 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 34.8 tgt/g) = 1.51 baseline -> 0.83 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
E.J. Jenkins LOCKED
TE · PHI · proj 0.8 Too few games0.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.82 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.82 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Velus Jones LOCKED
WR · SEA · proj 0.8 Too few games0.8proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.76 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.988 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 28.4 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.76 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk
Julius Chestnut LOCKED
RB · TEN · proj 0.7 Steady0.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.67 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.914 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.67 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Jake Briningstool LOCKED
TE · KC · proj 0.7 Too few games0.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.67 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.79 × 1.393 × 1.061 = 1.16 (tgt share 0.027 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 1.16 baseline -> 0.67 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Anthony Tyus LOCKED
RB · CAR · proj 0.7 Too few games0.7proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.66 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.982 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.66 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Treyton Welch LOCKED
TE · NO · proj 0.6 Too few games0.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.65 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.39 × 1.393 × 1.049 = 0.58 (tgt share 0.010 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 39.0 tgt/g) = 0.58 baseline -> 0.65 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Ben VanSumeren LOCKED
RB · KC · proj 0.6 Too few games0.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.63 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.061 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.63 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Travis Homer LOCKED
RB · PIT · proj 0.6 Falling0.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.61 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.963 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 34.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 1.66 × 0.614 × 0.954 = 0.97 (carry share 0.077 unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 0.97 baseline -> 0.61 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Josh Williams LOCKED
RB · TB · proj 0.6 Too few games0.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.58 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.58 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Ameer Abdullah LOCKED
RB · JAX · proj 0.6 · Questionable Falling0.6proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.57 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.60 × 1.153 × 1.012 = 0.70 (tgt share 0.022 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 27.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.00 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 1.25 (carry share 0.072 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 1.95 baseline -> 0.57 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Carson Steele LOCKED
RB · PHI · proj 0.5 · Questionable Too few games0.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.49 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.49 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk
Cade Stover LOCKED
TE · HOU · proj 0.5 Too few games0.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.49 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.71 × 1.393 × 0.951 = 0.94 (tgt share 0.021 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 0.94 baseline -> 0.49 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Jamaal Pritchett LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 0.5 Too few games0.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.47 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR8); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.47 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR8: usage unshrunk
Zavier Scott LOCKED
RB · CHI · proj 0.5 Too few games0.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.47 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.110 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 32.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.47 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Kolbe Katsis LOCKED
WR · DEN · proj 0.5 Too few games0.5proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.46 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.927 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.46 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Greg Dortch LOCKED
WR · BUF · proj 0.4 Steady0.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.45 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.184 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 26.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.45 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Dean Connors LOCKED
RB · LAR · proj 0.4 Steady0.4proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.40 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.245 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.40 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
LaJohntay Wester LOCKED
WR · BAL · proj 0.3 Falling0.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.31 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.80 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 1.10 (tgt share 0.030 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 26.6 tgt/g) = 1.10 baseline -> 0.31 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Brevin Jordan LOCKED
TE · HOU · proj 0.3 Too few games0.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.31 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.58 × 1.393 × 0.951 = 0.77 (tgt share 0.017 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 0.77 baseline -> 0.31 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Alex Bachman LOCKED
WR · LAR · proj 0.3 Too few games0.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.27 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.245 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.27 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
David Moore LOCKED
WR · CAR · proj 0.3 Too few games0.3proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.27 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.91 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 1.25 (tgt share 0.025 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 1.25 baseline -> 0.27 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Charlie Jones LOCKED
WR · NYG · proj 0.2 Too few games0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.24 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 32.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.24 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Cameron Latu LOCKED
TE · NE · proj 0.2 Falling0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.23 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.086 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 29.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.23 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Nick Muse LOCKED
TE · ATL · proj 0.2 Too few games0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.21 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.073 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 25.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.21 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Nikko Remigio LOCKED
WR · KC · proj 0.2 Steady0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.17 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.061 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 29.5 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.17 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Tylan Wallace LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 0.2 Too few games0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.16 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.16 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Simi Fehoko LOCKED
WR · ARI · proj 0.2 Steady0.2proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.16 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.939 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 38.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.16 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Bauer Sharp LOCKED
TE · TB · proj 0.1 Steady0.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.12 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.12 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
Ko Kieft LOCKED
TE · TB · proj 0.1 Too few games0.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.12 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.12 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Malachi Corley LOCKED
WR · CLE · proj 0.1 Rising0.1proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.12 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.12 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Rasheen Ali LOCKED
RB · BAL · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.02 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.982 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 26.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.02 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk
Barion Brown LOCKED
WR · NO · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.01 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 39.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.50 × 0.614 × 1.061 = 0.33 (0.50 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.2 car/g) = 0.33 baseline -> 0.01 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
AJ Dillon LOCKED
RB · CAR · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Rising0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.50 × 1.153 × 0.982 = 0.57 (tgt share 0.014 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 36.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 4.25 × 0.614 × 0.977 = 2.55 (carry share 0.179 unshrunk; team 23.8 car/g) = 3.12 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Adonai Mitchell LOCKED
WR · NYJ · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 5.80 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 7.35 (tgt share 0.254 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.40; team 27.8 tgt/g) = 7.35 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; designated Out: projected 0
Anthony Gould LOCKED
WR · IND · proj 0.0 · Questionable Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR8); team 33.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR8: usage unshrunk
Ashton Dulin LOCKED
WR · IND · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.01 × 1.404 × 1.073 = 6.04 (tgt share 0.121 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 33.2 tgt/g) = 6.04 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Baker Mayfield LOCKED
QB · TB · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 12.646 × 0.902 = 11.41 (pass pts/g 10.20 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.50) + rushing: 3.72 × 0.775 × 0.878 = 2.53 (carries/g 3.67 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.50; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 13.94 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: designated Out: projected 0
Ben Skowronek LOCKED
WR · PIT · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Rising0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.30 × 1.404 × 0.963 = 1.76 (tgt share 0.037 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 34.8 tgt/g) = 1.76 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Britain Covey LOCKED
WR · PHI · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Carsen Ryan LOCKED
TE · CLE · proj 0.0 Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Case Keenum LOCKED
QB · CHI · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 13.295 × 1.110 = 14.76 (pass pts/g 10.60 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 3.26 × 0.775 × 1.138 = 2.88 (carries/g 2.50 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 17.64 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; designated Out: projected 0
Cooper Rush LOCKED
QB · ATL · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
passing: 1.00 × 10.887 × 1.073 = 11.69 (pass pts/g 4.58 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 2.66 × 0.775 × 1.092 = 2.25 (carries/g 1.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 13.94 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; designated Out: projected 0
Derius Davis LOCKED
WR · LAC · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.60 × 1.404 × 0.878 = 0.74 (tgt share 0.022 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 26.8 tgt/g) = 0.74 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Devin Duvernay LOCKED
WR · ARI · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.939 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 38.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk
Eli Heidenreich LOCKED
RB · PIT · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.963 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 34.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Elijah Sarratt LOCKED
WR · BAL · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.83 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 2.53 (tgt share 0.069 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 26.6 tgt/g) = 2.53 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Emari Demercado LOCKED
RB · DAL · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 1.135 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 37.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.74 × 0.614 × 1.168 = 1.97 (carry share 0.128 unshrunk; team 21.4 car/g) = 1.97 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Feleipe Franks LOCKED
TE · CAR · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 0.982 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 36.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk
KaVontae Turpin LOCKED
WR · DAL · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.40 × 1.404 × 1.135 = 2.23 (tgt share 0.038 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 37.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.40 × 0.614 × 1.168 = 0.29 (0.40 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 21.4 car/g) = 2.52 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Kaden Wetjen LOCKED
WR · PIT · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.963 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 34.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk
Kameron Johnson LOCKED
WR · TB · proj 0.0 Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.40 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 0.51 (tgt share 0.014 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 29.2 tgt/g) = 0.51 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk
Kene Nwangwu LOCKED
RB · NYJ · proj 0.0 Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB4); team 27.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB4: usage unshrunk
Kylen Granson LOCKED
TE · TEN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.82 × 1.393 × 0.914 = 1.04 (tgt share 0.029 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 28.6 tgt/g) = 1.04 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Marlin Klein LOCKED
TE · HOU · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.92 × 1.393 × 0.951 = 1.22 (tgt share 0.027 unshrunk (no prior for role TE5); team 34.2 tgt/g) = 1.23 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0

Marquise Brown LOCKED
WR · PHI · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj

Verdict

LOCKED locked this week

Why

his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup

Lock

LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

Evidence

league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5

Projection

0.00 ± 0.00

why

receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 28.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.00 × 0.614 × 0.885 = 1.09 (2.00 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 24.2 car/g) = 1.09 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0

Montorie Foster LOCKED
WR · SEA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Fri 00:15 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 0.988 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 28.4 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Nicholas Singleton LOCKED
RB · TEN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.914 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB5); team 28.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.75 × 0.614 × 0.893 = 1.51 (carry share 0.127 unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 1.51 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB5: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Quintin Morris LOCKED
TE · JAX · proj 0.0 Falling0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 1.50
why
receiving: 0.50 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 0.71 (tgt share 0.019 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 27.0 tgt/g) = 0.70 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 1.50 | caveats: no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk
Rashod Bateman LOCKED
WR · BAL · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Falling0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.43 × 1.404 × 0.982 = 6.10 (tgt share 0.158 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.60; team 26.6 tgt/g) = 6.10 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: designated Out: projected 0
Sean Tucker LOCKED
RB · TB · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.153 × 0.902 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role RB3); team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 3.11 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 1.68 (carry share 0.114 unshrunk; team 27.2 car/g) = 1.68 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role RB3: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Tanner Arkin LOCKED
TE · NE · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.393 × 1.086 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role TE4); team 29.8 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role TE4: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Theo Johnson LOCKED
TE · NYG · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Falling0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.19 × 1.393 × 1.012 = 3.08 (tgt share 0.063 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.61; team 32.6 tgt/g) = 3.08 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: designated Out: projected 0
Tre' Harris LOCKED
WR · LAC · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Steady0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:25 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 5.67 × 1.404 × 0.878 = 6.99 (tgt share 0.187 shrunk to WR1 prior 0.249, w=0.60; team 26.8 tgt/g) = 6.99 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: designated Out: projected 0
Tutu Atwell LOCKED
WR · LAR · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Falling0.0proj
Verdict
LOCKED locked this week
Why
his game this week has kicked off (LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC); he cannot enter this week's lineup
Lock
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.25 × 1.404 × 1.245 = 2.19 (tgt share 0.030 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 42.0 tgt/g) = 2.19 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; designated Out: projected 0
Brock Wright UNRANKED
TE · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available TEs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.70 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 2.37 (tgt share 0.032 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.68; team 37.6 tgt/g) = 2.37 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Caleb Douglas UNRANKED
WR · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 5.12 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 7.19 (tgt share 0.200 unshrunk (no prior for role WR4); team 25.6 tgt/g) = 7.19 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR4: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Chris Bell UNRANKED
WR · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Mixed0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 3.06 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 4.30 (tgt share 0.117 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.59; team 25.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 25.8 car/g) = 4.42 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Colbie Young UNRANKED
WR · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.09 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 1.54 (tgt share 0.029 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 1.54 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Dohnte Meyers UNRANKED
WR · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 3.92 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 5.50 (tgt share 0.097 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.67; team 37.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 22.8 car/g) = 5.62 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Drew Sample UNRANKED
TE · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available TEs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.19 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 3.05 (tgt share 0.059 unshrunk (no prior for role TE3); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 3.05 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role TE3: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Greg Dulcich UNRANKED
TE · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available TEs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.07 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 5.67 (tgt share 0.153 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.55; team 25.6 tgt/g) = 5.67 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jalen Tolbert UNRANKED
WR · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.79 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 2.51 (tgt share 0.070 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 25.6 tgt/g) = 2.51 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Jauan Jennings UNRANKED
WR · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Falling0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.17 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 1.65 (tgt share 0.045 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 25.8 tgt/g) = 1.65 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Ke'Shawn Williams UNRANKED
WR · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR7); team 37.2 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR7: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Kevin Coleman UNRANKED
WR · MIA · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIA's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.35 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 6.10 (tgt share 0.162 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.54; team 25.6 tgt/g) = 6.10 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Myles Price UNRANKED
WR · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Rising0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.13 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 2.99 (tgt share 0.054 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.59; team 25.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 30.4 car/g) = 3.11 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
Odell Beckham UNRANKED
WR · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Too few games0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 1.55 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 2.18 (tgt share 0.048 unshrunk (no prior for role WR5); team 32.6 tgt/g) = 2.18 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; 1 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy; no target-share prior for role WR5: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
T.J. Hockenson UNRANKED
TE · MIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Mixed0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available TEs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: MIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 4.94 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 6.88 (tgt share 0.209 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.59; team 25.8 tgt/g) = 6.88 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Tanner Hudson UNRANKED
TE · CIN · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) · Out Steady0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available TEs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: CIN's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 2.06 × 1.393 × 1.000 = 2.87 (tgt share 0.045 shrunk to TE2 prior 0.073, w=0.63; team 37.2 tgt/g) = 2.87 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0; designated Out: projected 0
Tay Martin UNRANKED
WR · DET · proj 0.0 (withheld: will not play) Steady0.0proj
Verdict
UNRANKED not compared (under the cap)
Why
projects below the top 12 available WRs this week, so he was not compared against the lineup
Lock
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)
Evidence
league snapshot 2026-10-19 14:02 UTC; projections from box scores through week 5
Projection
0.00 ± 0.00
why
receiving: 0.00 × 1.404 × 1.000 = 0.00 (tgt share 0.000 unshrunk (no prior for role WR6); team 37.6 tgt/g) = 0.00 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; no target-share prior for role WR6: usage unshrunk; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0

Availability is UNVERIFIED for every row and cannot be anything else from this cache: the snapshot proves only that the player is on no roster at its as-of. Whether he is a free agent or sitting on waivers, and when a claim would process, live in Sleeper’s transactions feed, which this repo does not pull. Check in the app before bidding.

Only a LINEUP verdict is a move, and it is CONDITIONAL on availability. Raw points across positions rank nothing here; a same-position gap is research; a locked player cannot enter this week's lineup. Filters and sort are kept across a reload on this device.

Drop candidates, cheapest to lose first: Kenyon Sadiq (5.0), Jakobi Meyers (7.5), Dontayvion Wicks (8.3), Matthew Stafford (20.9) — one week of projected points, not roster value.

Protected from the drop list (12)

Drake Maye (QB, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Devaughn Vele (WR, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Spencer Shrader (K, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
D'Andre Swift (RB, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Nico Collins (WR, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Pat Freiermuth (TE, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Trey McBride (TE, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Garrett Wilson (WR, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop
Jahmyr Gibbs (RB, BENCH): projected 0 because he will not play this week (no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0), not because he is worth 0 — he projected 17.73 before the withholding, and no rest-of-season model exists here to price the weeks after this one
Tank Dell (WR, IR): in the IR slot — dropping him gives up the roster spot the league grants for an injured player, and his 0 this week says nothing about the rest of the season
PIT DST (DEF, START): starting and not provably movable — LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC; a starter whose game has started stays in your lineup for the week; Sleeper only lets him go through a waiver claim submitted before his kickoff (support.sleeper.com), so he is not offered as a drop

These are never offered as an automatic drop. A player projected 0 because he is hurt, suspended or on a bye is not a player worth 0, and pricing him properly needs a rest-of-season model this repo does not have and will not fake (rule #5).

FAAB price not modelled (QUANT_FOUNDATIONS §7 is unverified); rest-of-season value not modelled — every gain here is THIS WEEK's best legal lineup, and a pickup that leaves this week's lineup unchanged is research, not an upgrade

league waivers are FAAB with a 100-unit budget and a 2-day clear period (verified league settings). A player dropped inside that window is ON WAIVERS, not a free agent — and nothing in this cache says when any of these players was dropped.

12 roster player(s) are protected from the drop list and named with the reason; a player who scores 0 this week because he is not playing is not a player worth 0

Start / sit — the comparisons behind those actions

current lineup120.9

best legal lineup120.9

improvement+0.0

The current lineup is already the best legal lineup the projections can find.

No bench player can be shown to legally enter a slot: each is unprojected, on IR, locked, or his kickoff could not be established.

frozen (not moved) and why

Drake Maye (QB, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Rhamondre Stevenson (RB, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
D'Andre Swift (RB, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Garrett Wilson (WR, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Nico Collins (WR, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Trey McBride (TE, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Pat Freiermuth (TE, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Devaughn Vele (WR, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Spencer Shrader (K, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
PIT DST (DEF, START): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Kenyon Sadiq (TE, BENCH): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
Matthew Stafford (QB, BENCH): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
Jakobi Meyers (WR, BENCH): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
Dontayvion Wicks (WR, BENCH): LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

z = Δ / √(SD²+SD²) — the edge expressed in multiples of the combined uncertainty of the two projections. |z| < 0.5 is read as within noise here; note that anything below |z| = 1 still means the edge is SMALLER than that uncertainty, so a "favoured" row at z = 0.7 is a lean, not a finding. Both projections are UNVALIDATED. A swap is listed only if Sleeper would accept it now: position-eligible, both players proven unlocked, nobody promoted off IR.

Roster projections and usage trends

Each player’s projection beside what the player has actually done through week 5. The trend reads volume only (snaps and opportunities over the last two games against the ones before); points and efficiency never move it (rule #6). Bars are opportunities per week.

Starters 10

QB
Drake Maye
QB NE · no game-status designation (Shoulder); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice
Rising
18.8 ppg · 100% snaps · 41 opp wk 5
Projection19.0 ± 8.7
why
```
passing: 1.00 × 14.924 × 1.086 = 16.20 (pass pts/g 14.82 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 5.16 × 0.775 × 1.107 = 4.43 (carries/g 6.00 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 20.63 baseline -> 18.96 with advanced stats ± 8.67
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
RB
D'Andre Swift
RB CHI · no game-status designation (Hip, wk5); wk5 practice: Full Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far
Falling
14.8 ppg · 58% snaps · 14 opp wk 5
Projection15.4 ± 8.3
why
```
receiving: 3.26 × 1.153 × 1.110 = 4.18 (tgt share 0.099 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.47; team 32.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 15.60 × 0.614 × 1.138 = 10.90 (carry share 0.426 unshrunk; team 36.6 car/g) = 15.08 baseline -> 15.37 with advanced stats ± 8.29
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
WR
Garrett Wilson
WR NYJ · no designation on the wk6 report
Falling
14.2 ppg · 93% snaps · 11 opp wk 5
Projection12.8 ± 5.7
why
```
receiving: 7.82 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 9.90 (tgt share 0.302 shrunk to WR1 prior 0.249, w=0.61; team 27.8 tgt/g) = 9.90 baseline -> 12.82 with advanced stats ± 5.74
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
TE
Trey McBride
TE ARI · no game-status designation (Not injury related - resting player, wk2); wk2 practice: Full Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far
Steady
14.0 ppg · 90% snaps · 10 opp wk 5
Projection12.6 ± 8.2
why
```
receiving: 9.69 × 1.393 × 0.939 = 12.67 (tgt share 0.289 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.68; team 38.8 tgt/g) = 12.67 baseline -> 12.62 with advanced stats ± 8.24
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
RB
Rhamondre Stevenson
RB NE · wk5 report: Questionable (Knee); wk5 practice: Limited Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far
Rising
10.7 ppg · 71% snaps · 16 opp wk 5
Projection12.4 ± 6.6
why
```
receiving: 3.40 × 1.153 × 1.086 = 4.26 (tgt share 0.128 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.45; team 29.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 11.40 × 0.614 × 1.107 = 7.75 (carry share 0.377 unshrunk; team 30.2 car/g) = 12.01 baseline -> 12.41 with advanced stats ± 6.61
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
WR
Nico Collins
WR HOU · no game-status designation (Not injury related - resting player); wk6 practice: Limited Participation in Practice
Too few games
17.7 ppg · 71% snaps · 7 opp wk 5
Projection12.2 ± 6.0
why
```
receiving: 7.56 × 1.404 × 0.951 = 10.09 (tgt share 0.260 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.52; team 34.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.33 × 0.614 × 0.939 = 0.19 (0.33 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 23.4 car/g) = 10.28 baseline -> 12.24 with advanced stats ± 5.96
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
FLEX
Devaughn Vele
WR NO · no designation on the wk6 report
Steady
9.9 ppg · 96% snaps · 6 opp wk 5
Projection9.9 ± 6.2
why
```
receiving: 7.27 × 1.404 × 1.049 = 10.70 (tgt share 0.190 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.68; team 39.0 tgt/g) = 10.70 baseline -> 9.88 with advanced stats ± 6.21
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

DST

PIT DST

DEF PIT · n/a (team defense)

No stat line

Projection9.0 ± 6.0

why

 = 9.05 ± 5.96 | caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)

LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

K
Spencer Shrader
K IND · no game-status designation (Groin, wk4); wk4 practice: Full Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far
Steady
14.8 ppg · 0% snaps · 0 opp wk 5
Projection9.0 ± 6.8
why
```
kicking: 1.00 × 12.385 × 1.000 = 12.39 (pts/g 14.80 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 12.38 baseline -> 8.96 with advanced stats ± 6.81
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

FLEX

Pat Freiermuth

TE PIT · Questionable (Calf) — wk6 report

Steady

10.2 ppg · 68% snaps · 8 opp wk 5

Projection8.6 ± 4.9

why

receiving: 5.40 × 1.393 × 0.963 = 7.24 (tgt share 0.149 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.66; team 34.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.60 × 0.614 × 0.954 = 0.35 (0.60 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 7.59 baseline -> 8.61 with advanced stats ± 4.94

LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC

Bench 5

BENCH

Matthew Stafford

QB LA · no designation on the wk6 report

Steady

19.0 ppg · 100% snaps · 54 opp wk 5

Projection20.9 ± 10.2

why

passing: 1.00 × 17.269 × 1.245 = 21.50 (pass pts/g 18.58 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.62) + rushing: 2.79 × 0.775 × 1.306 = 2.82 (carries/g 2.20 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.62; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 24.32 baseline -> 20.86 with advanced stats ± 10.21

LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC

BENCH
Dontayvion Wicks
WR PHI · Questionable (Undisclosed); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice
QUESTIONABLE — projection NOT adjusted (rule #11); verify before kickoff
Steady
8.1 ppg · 84% snaps · 8 opp wk 5
Projection8.3 ± 4.6
why
```
receiving: 6.19 × 1.404 × 0.908 = 7.89 (tgt share 0.196 shrunk to WR1 prior 0.249, w=0.61; team 28.6 tgt/g) = 7.89 baseline -> 8.25 with advanced stats ± 4.58
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
BENCH
Jakobi Meyers
WR JAX · no game-status designation (Thumb, wk5); wk5 practice: Full Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far
Steady
8.0 ppg · 85% snaps · 3 opp wk 5
Projection7.5 ± 3.4
why
```
receiving: 4.09 × 1.404 × 1.012 = 5.82 (tgt share 0.133 shrunk to WR2 prior 0.179, w=0.60; team 27.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 1.015 = 0.12 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 5.94 baseline -> 7.47 with advanced stats ± 3.45
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC
BENCH
Kenyon Sadiq
TE NYJ · Questionable (Concussion) — wk6 report; wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice
Falling
6.4 ppg · 19% snaps · 3 opp wk 5
Projection5.0 ± 3.6
why
```
receiving: 4.36 × 1.393 × 0.902 = 5.48 (tgt share 0.151 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.61; team 27.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.20 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 0.11 (0.20 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 26.2 car/g) = 5.59 baseline -> 5.04 with advanced stats ± 3.63
```
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
BENCH
Jahmyr Gibbs
RB DET · unknown — no wk6 injury report loaded; UNRESOLVED, not healthy
no current injury report for his team this week — status UNRESOLVED
Steady
28.0 ppg · 70% snaps · 31 opp wk 5
Projection0.0 ± 0.0 (withheld; model 17.7)
why
```
receiving: 5.37 × 1.153 × 1.000 = 6.19 (tgt share 0.181 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.51; team 37.6 tgt/g) + rushing: 21.00 × 0.614 × 1.000 = 12.90 (carry share 0.808 unshrunk; team 26.0 car/g) = 19.09 baseline -> 0.00 with advanced stats ± 0.00 | caveats: no market line for this week: line multiplier 1.0; BYE week (the schedule declares or proves it): projected 0
```
no week-6 game: BYE (proven: DET's whole regular season is in the schedule and week 6 is not one of its games)

Reserve 1

IR
Tank Dell
WR HOU · IR (Knee - ACL + MCL); wk6 practice: Did Not Participate In Practice
No stat line
Projectionabstain
no admissible box scores through week 5
LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC

SD = mean × positional CV from QUANT_FOUNDATIONS §2.1 (a literature recommendation, not a fit). Questionable/Doubtful are flagged, never zeroed (rule #11). Withheld = will not play (a bye the schedule declares or proves / Out / IR), and the model's own number is kept next to it. A team with no game row and no declared or proven bye is not a bye: its players are not projected (UNKNOWN, never a guessed 0).

Matchup — context, not advice

my lineup120.9 ± 21.7

roster #7111.2 ± 20.7

margin+9.7

tested win probability (not used to rank any action above)

P(win) TESTED63%

leverage1.26 pp/pt

every projected starter counted on both sides; independence assumed between all starters (tested: no spread correction needed). TESTED — Φ(margin/SD) as computed, no correction applied; a spread factor fit on 10751 synthetic matchups 2019-2022 did not beat it on 8060 held-out from 2023-2025 (log loss 0.6660 as is vs 0.6665 with the factor); on this league's 157 real matchups 2023-2025 the favourite was given 62% on average and won 66% (sampling noise ±4 points).

Rule #7 denominates decisions in ΔP(win). This number is now tested against past matchups, but the actions above are still ranked by deadline and by projected points; ranking them by ΔP(win) is a separate change. Every matchup in the league is recorded each week and graded once it is final.

opponent lineup (roster #7)

slot	player	pos	nfl	projection	availability	lock
QB	Caleb Williams	QB	CHI	20.4 ± 8.3 why passing: 1.00 × 13.711 × 1.110 = 15.22 (pass pts/g 11.64 shrunk to pooled QB 15.09 (n=153 starter-games), w=0.40) + rushing: 5.26 × 0.775 × 1.138 = 4.64 (carries/g 7.50 shrunk to pooled QB 3.77, w=0.40; pooled QB 0.775 pts/carry) = 19.86 baseline -> 20.42 with advanced stats ± 8.34 \| caveats: 2 game(s) of evidence — prior-heavy	Questionable (Hamstring) — wk6 report; wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
RB	Christian McCaffrey	RB	SF	18.1 ± 7.9 why receiving: 3.65 × 1.153 × 1.196 = 5.04 (tgt share 0.192 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.42; team 26.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 12.20 × 0.614 × 1.245 = 9.33 (carry share 0.439 unshrunk; team 27.8 car/g) = 14.37 baseline -> 14.92 with advanced stats -> 18.13 stacked with Sleeper's 18.91 ± 7.90	no game-status designation (Not injury related - resting player); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice	kicks off Tue 00:15 UTC
RB	Kyren Williams	RB	LA	17.7 ± 10.6 why receiving: 5.55 × 1.153 × 1.245 = 7.97 (tgt share 0.157 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.54; team 42.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 14.00 × 0.614 × 1.306 = 11.23 (carry share 0.547 unshrunk; team 25.6 car/g) = 19.20 baseline -> 17.71 with advanced stats ± 10.56	no designation on the wk6 report	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
WR	Germie Bernard	WR	PIT	6.8 ± 3.8 why receiving: 4.76 × 1.404 × 0.963 = 6.44 (tgt share 0.146 shrunk to WR3 prior 0.123, w=0.60; team 34.8 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.25 × 0.614 × 0.954 = 0.15 (0.25 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 21.6 car/g) = 6.59 baseline -> 6.85 with advanced stats ± 3.82	no designation on the wk6 report	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
WR	Emeka Egbuka	WR	TB	9.3 ± 5.2 why receiving: 6.86 × 1.404 × 0.902 = 8.68 (tgt share 0.226 shrunk to WR1 prior 0.249, w=0.62; team 29.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 0.40 × 0.614 × 0.878 = 0.22 (0.40 carries/g observed, unshrunk; team 27.2 car/g) = 8.90 baseline -> 9.28 with advanced stats ± 5.16	no game-status designation (Toe, wk1); wk1 practice: Full Participation in Practice — not on his team's wk6 report so far	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
TE	Tyler Higbee	TE	LA	9.6 ± 7.0 why receiving: 6.21 × 1.393 × 1.245 = 10.77 (tgt share 0.139 shrunk to TE1 prior 0.166, w=0.67; team 42.0 tgt/g) = 10.77 baseline -> 9.57 with advanced stats ± 7.00	no game-status designation (Not injury related - resting player); wk6 practice: Did Not Participate In Practice	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 20:05 UTC
FLEX	Alvin Kamara	RB	NO	8.2 ± 5.3 why receiving: 4.17 × 1.153 × 1.049 = 5.05 (tgt share 0.112 shrunk to RB1 prior 0.103, w=0.44; team 39.0 tgt/g) + rushing: 7.14 × 0.614 × 1.061 = 4.65 (carry share 0.308 unshrunk; team 23.2 car/g) = 9.70 baseline -> 8.18 with advanced stats ± 5.33	Questionable (Undisclosed); wk6 practice: Limited Participation in Practice QUESTIONABLE — projection NOT adjusted (rule #11); verify before kickoff	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
FLEX	Roschon Johnson	RB	CHI	5.3 ± 2.7 why receiving: 2.23 × 1.153 × 1.110 = 2.85 (tgt share 0.082 shrunk to RB2 prior 0.062, w=0.35; team 32.2 tgt/g) + rushing: 2.82 × 0.614 × 1.138 = 1.97 (carry share 0.077 unshrunk; team 36.6 car/g) = 4.82 baseline -> 5.33 with advanced stats ± 2.65	no designation on the wk6 report	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 17:00 UTC
K	Brandon Aubrey	K	DAL	7.8 ± 4.7 why kicking: 1.00 × 8.635 × 1.000 = 8.64 (pts/g 8.80 shrunk to pooled K 8.36 (n=158), w=0.62; field goals are flat in the line (§1.3), no multiplier) = 8.63 baseline -> 7.83 with advanced stats ± 4.75	no designation on the wk6 report	LOCKED — kicked off Mon 00:20 UTC
DST	JAX DST	DEF	JAX	7.9 ± 6.0 why = 7.92 ± 5.96 \| caveats: team defense: advanced_v1 (opponent's implied total, pressure, takeaways, points allowed; league DEF scoring)	n/a (team defense)	LOCKED — kicked off Sun 13:30 UTC

Report card — how this page has graded

weeks graded3

projection direction28%12 of 43 calls

endorsed advice rightnone yetmoves the page backed

roster projection error7.4avg points off, n=38

Start/sit shoot-out, season to date

Share of same-position pairs each system ordered the way the points did. 50% is a coin flip.

Old baseline61.3% · 777 pairs
Sleeper59.5% · 777 pairs
Page + Sleeper blend58.8% · 777 pairs
Stack58.7% · 777 pairs
This page58.2% · 777 pairs

week	board graded	direction	endorsed	error	page vs Sleeper
3	2026-09-27 13:06 UTC	8/24	none	7.4	—
4	2026-10-04 12:48 UTC	3/6	none	7.2	58% vs 54%
5	2026-10-11 13:05 UTC	1/13	none	7.5	58% vs 65%

Graded from the board frozen at decision time against the week’s box scores (rule #7: the choice, not hindsight). Direction counts every graded comparison, endorsed or withheld; endorsed counts only the moves the page backed. One week is noise (rule #5): nothing on this page is retuned from it.

Inputs, and what they are good enough for

all current

status	source	as-of	covers	reason
FRESH	sleeper_league	2026-10-19 14:02 UTC	wk6	pulled 0h ago
FRESH	sleeper_players	2026-10-19 14:02 UTC	—	pulled 0h ago
FRESH	injuries	2026-10-19 14:02 UTC	wk1-6	pulled 0h ago
FRESH	schedules	2026-10-19 06:45 UTC	wk1-18	pulled 7h ago
FRESH	weekly_stats	2026-10-18 16:51 UTC	wk1-6	pulled 21h ago
FRESH	snap_counts	2026-10-17 20:53 UTC	wk1-6	pulled 41h ago
FRESH	crosswalk	2026-10-15 23:14 UTC	—	pulled 87h ago

A freshness label is not a gate. This is the gate:

action	state	because	verify
lineup	SUPPORTED	every input this rests on is current	—
waiver	SUPPORTED	every input this rests on is current	—
matchup	SUPPORTED	every input this rests on is current	—

Box-score sources (weekly_stats, snap_counts) are deliberately not gates: they are stale by construction for most of every week, which the evidence boundary already states. A scheduled cloud refresh keeps the SNAPSHOT current; it does not make injury news timely, and nothing here should be read as a claim that it does.

Since the last snapshot

5 change(s)

against the snapshot of 2026-10-19T06:45:33+00:00, week 6

availability Kenyon Sadiq: Questionable (Concussion); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice — STALE designation from an out-of-date player pull — pulled 21h ago, over the 6h gameday limit; NOT a current status -> Questionable (Concussion) — wk6 report; wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice
availability Pat Freiermuth: Questionable (Calf) — STALE designation from an out-of-date player pull — pulled 21h ago, over the 6h gameday limit; NOT a current status -> Questionable (Calf) — wk6 report
availability Dontayvion Wicks: no game-status designation (Hamstring); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice -> Questionable (Undisclosed); wk6 practice: Full Participation in Practice
availability Tank Dell: IR (Knee - ACL + MCL); wk6 practice: Did Not Participate In Practice — STALE designation from an out-of-date player pull — pulled 21h ago, over the 6h gameday limit; NOT a current status -> IR (Knee - ACL + MCL); wk6 practice: Did Not Participate In Practice
freshness sleeper_players: STALE -> FRESH

Transitions only (rule #8): a projection has to move at least 1.5 points to be listed, so one more box score does not read as news.

How the baseline has fared (chronological, out-of-sample)

n=1408

evaluated chronologically on 1408 player-weeks (week(s) 2, 3, 4, 5): baseline MAE beats season PPG; 57% of actuals within ±1 SD (n=1408). UNVALIDATED for decisions — n is small.

predictor	n	MAE	RMSE	bias
baseline	1408	4.15	5.77	-0.24
ppg_to_date	1408	4.61	6.62	-0.33
last_week	1408	5.10	7.39	-0.11

baseline by position

position	n	MAE	RMSE	bias
K	126	3.94	4.82	-0.27
QB	127	6.55	7.81	+1.20
RB	327	4.17	5.72	+0.09
TE	289	3.37	4.70	-0.35
WR	539	4.05	5.96	-0.72

P(win) calibration: TESTED — Φ(margin/SD) as computed, no correction applied; a spread factor fit on 10751 synthetic matchups 2019-2022 did not beat it on 8060 held-out from 2023-2025 (log loss 0.6660 as is vs 0.6665 with the factor); on this league's 157 real matchups 2023-2025 the favourite was given 62% on average and won 66% (sampling noise ±4 points).

scored on player-weeks where all three predictors exist; a player's first week is never scored (nothing to predict from)

Decision-time archive

written

Written to week06_20261019T140214Z_a620f51b.json — the projections, lineup, alternatives, upgrades, the freshness gate and which actions were actually endorsed, as they were on this page. Grading reads that file and the week’s actuals only (gridiron.decisions.grade_archive), so a grade can never see data that arrived after the decision.